The 2022 NCAA Tournament has been loaded with surprising results that busted many a bracket and storylines that are almost too good to be true. As we prepare to send two teams on to the Final Four in New Orleans on Saturday in the Elite Eight, it’s notable not just who has made it to this point, but also who is not here after a wild Thursday night that saw the top two No. 1 seeds fall.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga figured to be here in the Elite Eight, perhaps even against No. 2 seed Duke in a rematch of their regular-season thriller. But No. 4 seed Arkansas had other plans and will take the Zags’ spot on the big stage, facing Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils in the West Region final out in San Francisco. These two programs faced off in the national championship game in 1994 and Coach K was denied a title by Nolan Richardson’s Razorbacks. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman has already gotten the team to back-to-back Elite Eights for the first time since Richardson reached the title game in both 1994 and 1995, and he’d love to keep that renaissance rolling with a confident team that just bounced the No. 1 overall seed from the tournament.
The early game of the Elite Eight doubleheader will be No. 2 seed Villanova against No. 5 seed Houston in the South Region final. Like Arkansas, Houston is surging into the next round after beating a No. 1 seed. The Cougars beating Arizona wasn’t as much of a surprise as Arkansas’ victory, but it was unexpected to see a Wildcats team that had been so effective all year trail the entire game and lose by 12 points. On a night of thrillers with two No. 1 seeds bounced and Duke storming back against Texas Tech, Villanova was the lone winner without too much drama as Jay Wright’s team has flipped the narrative and made deep tournament runs commonplace for this modern college basketball power.
The field of 68 has been narrowed to eight, and now it’s time to send two teams to the Final Four. As you prepare to watch all the action on Saturday, here’s some storylines to follow.
Duke’s finishing form is its finest form
The way the Blue Devils have closed out the last two games is the kind of basketball that shows why it has been mentioned all season that Krzyzewski might finish his Hall of Fame career in New Orleans at the Final Four. Michigan State’s five-point lead late in the second half vanished when Duke locked in on defense and got huge shots from Trevor Keels and Jeremy Roach. The Blue Devils had another defensive twist for Texas Tech in the Sweet 16, but this time they paired it with an absurd 70.8% shooting after halftime. The offense hasn’t just relied on Paolo Banchero — though he has been fantastic — in these stretches, they’ve been able to run their sets and get really good looks that power efficient performances. Roach has been a huge part of that, not only scoring himself (30 points in the last two games combined) but helping facilitate that ball movement and playmaking for the entire team.
Twice Duke has seen its season on the brink and faced the potential of ending Coach K’s career with a loss, and twice it has elevated its intensity and efficiency to advance to the next round. The way Duke has been finishing games is the kind of form you need to win six straight games in the NCAA Tournament and claim a national championship. With the Blue Devils favored against Arkansas and one of just a few top seeds remaining in the tournament, the odds of a storybook finish in New Orleans are as high as they’ve been all season.
No stocks soaring higher than Houston, Kelvin Sampson
The NCAA Tournament selection committee handed Houston a No. 5 seed, but multiple computer metrics — including the NET rankings — had the Cougars rated as a top-five team overall, not the No. 18 team in the country as they fell on the committee’s 1-68 seed list. The disconnect between Houston’s predictive metrics and its tournament seeding came as a result of its sub-.500 record in Quadrant 1 opportunities and lack of Q1 wins. But if you go talk to the coaching staffs at UAB, Illinois and Arizona, they will tell you this is not the 18th best team in the country. In fact, at this point in the proceedings, there’s a decent argument that Houston is the best team remaining in the tournament.
If the Cougars win on Saturday night against Villanova in San Antonio, it will be Kelvin Sampson’s second straight Final Four appearance and third overall in his career. The fact that he’s been able to guide this team on another deep run is a testament to the program he’s built up at Houston, as injuries were thought to be the reason this year’s team would fall short. Houston lost two of its four best players to injury by the 13th game of the season (Marcus Sasser, Tramon Mark) but now sits one win from the Final Four with 32 wins, the regular season and tournament titles in the American Athletic Conference and NCAA Tournament wins against the regular season champions from the Big Ten (Illinois) and Pac-12 (Arizona). If Sampson and the Cougars add Villanova, the Big East tournament champion, to that list, it’s going to be hard to argue that anyone has had a better NCAA Tournament showing than Houston.
Tempo, free throws could play huge role in both games
Two areas that have stood out as particularly significant in these matchups are the pace and style of play for both games as well as how each team involved has performed at the free throw line. Both Arkansas and Duke have the ability to play fast or play slow with the Razorbacks checking in as the fastest team in adjusted tempo (per KenPom.com) of the four teams in action on Saturday and Duke just behind them. But we’ve seen the Razorbacks slow things down as Eric Musselman plays with scheme and pace to throw opponents off their game, and while Duke is the next-fastest team, the season averages (No. 167 nationally) are much closer to the average. This will be part of the back-and-forth between Musselman and Coach K that adds another layer of intrigue to this matchup. On the opposite end of the spectrum, not only among the four teams in action on Saturday but among all 358 Division I teams, is Villanova and Houston. The two rank No. 345 and No. 338, respectively, in adjusted tempo and will be more than happy to turn this Elite Eight showdown into a halfcourt affair to see who can execute at a higher level.
That South Regional final also brings free throws into the conversation in a significant way. Villanova is pacing toward a historic finish in free-throw percentage with a nation-leading 82.6% mark from the charity stripe, and knocking down free throws has been a huge part of pulling away from Michigan and Ohio State in its last two wins. Houston, on the other hand, ranks No. 327 nationally in free throw shooting. When splitting hairs between these two capable Final Four contenders, performance at the line in crunch time could end up being the difference. Both Duke and Arkansas are good free throw shooting teams on the season — both between 73% and 76% — but have used better-than-average performances at the line to ice close games in this tournament.
Saturday’s Elite Eight schedule
- (2) Villanova vs. (5) Houston — 6:09 p.m. on TBS (watch live)
- (2) Duke vs. (4) Arkansas — 8:49 p.m. on TBS (watch live)