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As we have every Friday, Apple TV+ will be showcasing two of the 15 games on the MLB schedule. First up, we have the Cubs at Cardinals, followed by the Tigers at D-backs for some Interleague action. I’ll provide four bets you can make for these games that you can follow along with as you watch tonight.
I really like this spot for the Cardinals to hang some crooked numbers against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs. The month of June has not been kind to Hendricks, who has thrown 14 1/3 innings and has allowed 10 runs on 18 hits. The most eye-opening aspect of those 18 hits is that 10 of them have gone for extra bases. Seven doubles, a triple and two home runs have been given up by Hendricks in those 14 1/3 innings. One of the biggest issues for Henricks has also been lefties, who have tagged him for a .413 wOBA, 10 of the 13 home runs he’s allowed, and 15 of his 20 walks. Right off the top of the order, we’re expected to see Tommy Edman at the leadoff spot and likely Nolan Gorman hitting second.
This 4.5 run total is also a number the Cardinals have gone over in 12 of the 23 games they’ve played this month. They’ve been one of the top offenses in the league, ranking 8th in runs scored and home runs and 10th in wOBA, at .327. It’s also very possible that the Cardinals could get all the runs needed to go over this total off Hendricks alone. He’s allowed at least six runs in four of his 13 starts, including his last one against the Braves, who chased him after 4 1/3 innings. Edman hitting atop the Cardinals order gives us the most possible chances to go over this 1.5 bases total, especially with the matchup.
This seems like a logical play to make if you also believe Hendricks is out of this game early. As mentioned, Hendricks is giving up a ton of extra-base hits and lefties have been the ones giving him the most trouble. While we may not regard Edman as a power hitter, he’s gone over 1.5 bases in 28 of his 70 games, good for 40% of the season. In 17 of those games, he’s had at least two hits and three hits in six.
I think it’s also not a bad idea to take Gorman to go over 1.5 bases (+120) for the same reasons we laid out for Edman. Of course, you run a little more risk depending on where Gorman is hitting in the lineup, but he has the better chance of clearing this mark with one swing, whereas Edman may need multiple hits to get this done. Of Gorman’s 17 hits against righties, nine have gone for extra bases with three doubles and six home runs to his credit. Either way, I think both players, especially if they’re hitting first and second, are in a great spot to go over their 1.5 base total.
The D-backs will be facing off against Tigers starter Rony García in this one. He’s made 13 appearances overall, five of which were starts. While his stats overall aren’t impressive, his numbers as a starter are where it really gets ugly. In those five games, he’s posted a 6.38 ERA, a .358 wOBA, and 13 of the 24 hits allowed going for extra bases. He’s had a tough schedule as a starter as well, facing the Twins twice, followed by the Yankees, White Sox, and Rangers. Regardless of that, when you have a 4.97 ERA overall, accompanied by an xERA of 7.67, things haven’t exactly gone as García would like.
I like getting this prop at even money as well, giving us an opportunity to double our bet. While the D-backs aren’t usually a team I would be taking over on a team total with, the pitching has been a big problem for the Tigers. Garcia hasn’t gone deep in any of his starts, as he’s been out of the game after pitching five innings in four of them. That’ll open the opportunity for the D-backs to get a crack at the Tigers’ bullpen, which has combined for an ERA of just under 4 during the month of June.
Another plus money prop to consider in this game, this time focused on D-backs starter Merrill Kelly. This Tigers team is really struggling to produce offense, especially lately. Through the month of June, they’ve scored only 60 runs, which is the second-worst total in the league. They’re slashing just .233/.273/.334 and have just a 4.9 BB%, which is the lowest in the league this month. If we pull this back even further, the 359 total hits against righties are the third lowest in the league on the season. It’s been tough sledding for this Tigers’ offense.
Kelly isn’t a strikeout pitcher; he’s averaging a 7.6 K/9 on the year. However, he induces a lot of ground balls. Of the balls in play, 43% have been grounders while his fly-ball rate is at 34.6%. With a Tigers team struggling to hit as it is, under 5.5 hits feels like a good play at plus money. Remember, this is only against Kelly specifically, so it doesn’t matter if the Tigers go over this total after Kelly departs, this is strictly against him. Even with relying upon contact for outs, Kelly has gone under 5.5 hits allowed in eight of his 14 starts, good for 57% of the season.
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