The 2021 NCAA Tournament continues on Monday evening with a doubleheader in prime time on CBS. The second game of the evening pits the Baylor Bears against the Arkansas Razorbacks in an Elite Eight matchup, with the winner advancing to the Final Four. Baylor knocked off Villanova on Saturday to advance, needing a comeback in order to beat the Wildcats. Arkansas was tested severely by Oral Roberts, needing a last-second shot to glance off the rim to remain alive in March Madness.
Tip-off is at 9:57 p.m. ET in Indianapolis. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bears as 7.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 148 in the latest Arkansas vs. Baylor odds. Before locking in any Baylor vs. Arkansas picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Arkansas in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Arkansas vs. Baylor:
- Arkansas vs. Baylor spread: Baylor -7.5
- Arkansas vs. Baylor over-under: 148 points
- Arkansas vs. Baylor money line: Baylor -360, Arkansas +285
- ARK: The Razorbacks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
- BAY: The Bears are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why Baylor can cover
Baylor is a stellar team on both ends of the floor. The Bears rank No. 3 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (122.3), thanks in large part to great shooting numbers. Scott Drew’s team converts 40.8 percent of their 3-point shots, No. 2 in the country, and the Bears are the No. 6 team in effective field goal percentage (56.6 percent). Baylor is tremendous on the offensive glass, ranking No. 6 in the nation in grabbing 36.8 percent of its own misses. The Bears are also very good at protecting the ball, committing a turnover on 16.8 percent of possessions.
Beyond the confines of the Big 12, the Bears deploy a top-30 defense that is No. 3 in the nation in turnover rate, forcing a giveaway on 24.8 percent of possessions. They are also very strong in steal rate (12.9 percent) and block rate (10.4 percent), with above-average shooting efficiency allowed and free throw prevention marks. Arkansas is a balanced team, but the Razorbacks struggle from beyond the arc (33.3 percent), and that could open doors for Baylor.
Why Arkansas can cover
The Razorbacks needed all 40 minutes to advance with a closely-fought win over Oral Roberts, but Arkansas is a much more impressive team than that on paper. Potential NBA Draft lottery pick Moses Moody leads the way in averaging 17.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, and senior forward Justin Smith adds 13.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest. Smith has been particularly dominant lately, putting up 18.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in the last eight contests, all while shooting 61.6 percent from the field.
Arkansas also maintains a statistical profile without glaring weaknesses on either side of the floor, and the Razorbacks can take advantage of some issues for Baylor. The Bears are 295th in the country in free throw creation and, when the Bears get there, Baylor makes only 69.9 percent of its three throw attempts. In contrast, Arkansas is above-average at the line, making 74.0 percent. From there, the Razorbacks made a big dent against Oral Roberts on the offensive glass, and the Bears are a poor defensive rebounding team, allowing their opponents to grab more than 30 percent of their own missed shots this season.
How to make Arkansas vs. Baylor picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 156 points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Baylor vs. Arkansas? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.