In an NCAA Tournament that has been rife with surprises, the No. 1 seed Baylor Bears and second-seeded Houston Cougars managed to avoid the upset bug to advance to a Final Four matchup on Saturday in Indianapolis. Baylor (26-2) has won all but one of its four 2021 NCAA Tournament games by double digits, advancing to the Final Four by fending off a comeback by Arkansas to win the South Region championship. The Cougars (28-3) turned back surprising Oregon State in the final of the Midwest Region to extend its winning streak to 11 games and earn a spot opposite the Bears.
Tip-off at Lucas Oil Stadium is set for 5:14 p.m. ET on CBS. The winner advances to the national championship game on Monday to play either Gonzaga or UCLA. William Hill Sportsbook lists Baylor as a five-point favorite, while the over-under for total points scored is 135 in the latest Baylor vs. Houston odds. Before making any Houston vs. Baylor picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Houston in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Houston vs. Baylor:
- Baylor vs. Houston spread: Baylor -5
- Baylor vs. Houston over-under: 135 points
- Baylor vs. Houston money line: Baylor -220; Houston +180
- BAY: The Bears are 4-0 against AP top-10 teams this season
- HOU: The Cougars have won 11 straight neutral-site games
Why Baylor can cover
The Bears lead the country in 3-point shooting percentage (41.8) but have shown the ability to win even when they are struggling from behind the arc, rallying to beat Villanova in the Sweet 16 despite hitting just 3-of-19 shots from deep. Leading scorer Jared Butler is 6-of-24 from long range in the past four games, a big reason why he is averaging 13.0 points in the NCAA Tournament as opposed to 17.1 in the regular season. He is averaging 4.8 assists and 2.0 steals in the tournament.
While Baylor ranked among the top scoring teams in the country, the Bears placed three players on the Big 12 All-Defensive team in Butler and fellow guards Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital. Mitchell is showing why he earned conference Defensive Player of the Year honors, registering 13 steals in six postseason games. He is third on the team in scoring at 14.0 points per game and riding a streak of 12 consecutive contests in double figures.
Why Houston can cover
Much like Baylor, the Cougars rely on their backcourt to provide the bulk of their offense, led by leading scorer Quentin Grimes. Named the Player of the Year in the American Athletic Conference, the junior guard is averaging 18.0 points in the NCAA Tournament while hitting at least four 3-pointers in each game. Grimes and second-leading scorer Marcus Sasser (13.5 points per game) have played stellar defense, combining for 16 steals in the tournament.
One key for the Cougars in their last two victories was the ability to shut down the opposition’s leading scorer, holding Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim and Oregon State’s Ethan Thompson to a combined 23 points on 6-of-25 shooting. Houston also dominated the glass in each of those matchups, winning the battle of the boards by a combined 81-60. That’s not surprising for a team that was third nationally in offensive rebounds at 14.3 per game.
How to make Houston vs. Baylor picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 148 points. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Baylor vs. Houston? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.