The No. 1 seed Baylor Bears take on the No. 9 seed Wisconsin Badgers in a second round 2021 NCAA Tournament matchup on Sunday. Baylor is 23-2 this season after a blowout win over No. 16 Hartford on Friday. Wisconsin is just 18-12 overall in 2020-21, though the Badgers emerged from the highly competitive Big Ten. Wisconsin also put together an impressive effort in defeating No. 8 seed North Carolina in its opening round battle.
Tip-off is at 2:40 p.m. ET at Hinkle Fieldhouse. William Hill Sportsbook lists Baylor as a six-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 136.5 in the latest Baylor vs. Wisconsin odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Before making any Wisconsin vs. Baylor picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Wisconsin in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Wisconsin vs. Baylor:
- Baylor vs. Wisconsin spread: Baylor -6
- Baylor vs. Wisconsin over-under: 136.5 points
- Baylor vs. Wisconsin money line: Baylor -280, Wisconsin +230
- BAY: The Bears are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
- WIS: The Badgers are 4-5-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why Baylor can cover
The Bears are known for their elite offense, and it shows up in the numbers. Baylor led the Big 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Scott Drew’s team ranks third in the country in points per possession. That includes a top-five mark in effective field goal percentage (57.1 percent), and Baylor leads the country in three-point shooting at 41.4 percent. Even when they miss, the Bears are capable of taking advantage, with a top-five offensive rebound rate (37.3 percent) in the nation, and Baylor also takes care of the ball in committing a turnover on only 17.4 percent of offensive possessions.
The Bears also have encouraging defensive numbers, ranking second in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Baylor is No. 3 in the country in forcing turnovers, creating a giveaway on 24.9 percent of possessions, and that includes a 13.0 percent steal rate. The Bears are also above-average in both 3-point shooting allowed (33.5 percent) and two-point shooting allowed (48.0 percent), and the No. 1 seed has the talent advantage in this game.
Why Wisconsin can cover
The Badgers are very strong defensively, which is a necessity against the high-powered Baylor offense. Wisconsin ranks No. 12 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, with above-average marks in shooting efficiency allowed, defensive rebound rate (74.7 percent) and free throw prevention for the season. The Badgers can protect the rim, as evidenced by a 10.6 percent block rate, and Baylor ranks near the bottom of the country in both free throw creation rate (299th) and free throw accuracy (outside the top 200 at 69.5 percent).
On the other side of the floor, Wisconsin is excellent in avoiding turnovers, giving the ball away on only 13.4 percent of possessions. The Badgers are also a tremendous perimeter shooting team, converting 36.5 percent from 3-point range and 76.9 percent at the free throw line. Offensive rebounding is not a strength for Wisconsin, but it is also possible the Badgers could create second-chance opportunities against a Baylor defense that is very poor on the defensive glass, grabbing only 69.5 percent of available rebounds.
How to make Baylor vs. Wisconsin picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with seven players projected to score in double figures. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Baylor vs. Wisconsin? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.