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4:13 AM UTC
Fair warning that we are swinging for the fences with what follows. These are not safe selections, this is not cautious conjecture. We’re not here to tell you what is most likely to happen in this Hot Stove season; we are here to put out preposterous-but-plausible picks for where some of the biggest names in baseball might wind up this winter.
So we might (and likely will) strike out here. But if we connect on even one of these, you’d better believe we’ll be emphatically flipping our bat.
With free agency officially open as of Thursday evening, here are nine bold predictions for the Hot Stove season. For the sake of context, we will preface each one with a boring prediction that is more likely to be right.
Prediction No. 1: Judging Judge’s next club
Boring prediction: Aaron Judge will sign with the Yankees or, failing that, the Giants.
Bold prediction: Aaron Judge will defect to the Dodgers!
But the Yankees have shown in recent winters that there are limits to how much they will flex their financial muscle. And while Judge has been the perfect representative of the Yankees, this is not a Derek Jeter situation in which his lifelong dream was to wear the pinstripes. Judge is a Northern California kid, and that’s why so many suspect that if he does leave the Yanks, it will be to play for his “hometown” (and that’s using the term loosely) Giants, who appear to have the resources and need a superstar.
Nope. Sorry. The Dodgers, who have even more financial flexibility than usual this winter, are going to blow our minds. Maybe they really will move Mookie Betts to second base. Or maybe they’ll non-tender Cody Bellinger. In any case, they can incorporate Judge.
Alas, the Dodgers won’t be re-signing Trea Turner. However …
Prediction No. 2: Dansby’s destination
Boring prediction: Dansby Swanson re-signs with the Braves.
Bold prediction: Dansby Swanson also bolts for the Dodgers!
Were Swanson to leave, the Braves would be more likely to take their chances with Vaughn Grissom at short, find a lower-profile stopgap (Elvis Andrus) or make a trade than they are to go after Carlos Correa or Turner.
As far as Turner is concerned, there have been rumblings that he’d prefer to play for a team that trains in Florida. Many of those rumblings link him to the Phillies. So …
Prediction No. 3: Turner’s next team
Boring prediction: Trea Turner signs with a team that trains in Florida.
Bold prediction: Trea Turner signs with the Giants!
The industry perception is that Turner, who lives in Florida, would prefer to head east, and so that would be a safer selection here. The Phillies have been a rumored landing spot (which makes a lot of sense now that they declined Jean Segura’s option for 2023). The Cardinals would be interesting. Or maybe the Swanson-less Braves would surprise us.
But there is also an industry perception that players tend to sign with the team that offers them the most money. Funny how that works. The Giants are in good position to land one of the star shortstops in this market, and Turner might be at the top of the list. He has speed and pop and would elevate this lineup in a substantial way. Turner could conceivably play second base for a year until Brandon Crawford’s contract expires.
Prediction No. 4: deGrom deParts?
Boring prediction: Jacob deGrom re-signs with the Mets.
Bold prediction: Jacob deGrom leaves the Mets for the Rangers.
Boldest prediction: Jacob deGrom leaves the Mets for the Yankees!
Obviously, deGrom to the Rangers would not be boring. That would be a Texas-sized move. But it’s not one that’s especially challenging to predict. Because if the Mets don’t wish to pay two absolute top-of-the-market starting pitching contracts, given deGrom’s recent injury issues, then a Rangers team with money to spend and a need for pitching looms as an obvious landing spot. (The Braves used to be a clear potential landing spot, until they re-signed Charlie Morton. But again, maybe they’ll surprise us.)
So let’s go even bolder. We have already carved out a scenario wherein Judge spurns the Yankees’ offers and signs elsewhere. The Yankees would not be the first people to get dumped and head directly to the next attractive alternative. That’s deGrom, who would be given a king’s ransom to stay in New York City and instantly elevate the Yankees to “best rotation in the game” standing. Obviously, that would still leave the Yanks with plenty of work to do in the lineup. But while the club has some internal options knocking on the door on the position player side, its starting-pitching options are more limited.
Either of the above predictions leaves the Mets without deGrom. Well, don’t worry, Mets fans …
Prediction No. 5: Ohtani goes where?
Boring prediction: Shohei Ohtani stays put (at least until next year’s Trade Deadline).
Bold prediction: The Mets trade for Shohei Ohtani!
OK, so Angels GM Perry Minasian said the team isn’t dealing Ohtani. No disrespect to him, but the last time the GM of a team up for sale said publicly that he wasn’t trading his star player, that player (Juan Soto) wound up dealt less than two months later. We are not closing the book on anything.
The Mets need power and, with deGrom having deParted, they’ll need pitching.
Ohtani, of course, provides both. And Billy Eppler — the GM who signed Ohtani while with the Angels — will do what it takes to add this unique two-way talent with a package that begins with No. 2 prospect Brett Baty and No. 3 prospect Kevin Parada.
(Admittedly, parting with No. 1 prospect Francisco Álvarez would probably be a deal-breaker for the Mets, and not including him might be a deal-breaker for the Angels. But we’re trying to be bold here.)
Prediction No. 6: Verlander ventures to the NL?
Boring prediction: Justin Verlander re-signs with the Astros.
Bold prediction: Justin Verlander signs with the Cardinals!
Astros owner Jim Crane is expected to do what it takes to keep Verlander, who opted out of his contract on Thursday, happy in Houston. Verlander, though, will have a fascinating free agency after a historic age-39 season coming off Tommy John surgery. And if the price tag escalates dramatically, the Astros are in a position of depth in which they don’t necessarily need to bring him back, as painful as that scenario would be.
Could Verlander command a Max Scherzer-type contract (three years, $130 million), despite his age? Hard to say. But given the complexion of their club and the expectation that their payroll will increase, don’t rule out the possibility of the Cards, who don’t typically make bold moves in free agency, taking their rotation — and by extension, their team — to another level with a high-price, short-term Verlander deal.
Prediction No. 7: Beantown machinations
Boring prediction: The Red Sox don’t let Xander Bogaerts get away.
Bold prediction: Xander Bogaerts signs with the Mariners, and the Red Sox pivot to Brandon Nimmo!
The “real” prediction here is a half-hearted one, because, honestly, after the way negotiations went down last spring, Bogaerts might be intent on heading elsewhere. For now, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has said that a new contract for Bogaerts is the top priority for the team, and there really is no reason why the Red Sox shouldn’t be able to bring him back.
If Bogaerts does bolt, though, the Mariners are as good a landing spot as anywhere. Whether he stays at short and J.P. Crawford moves or Bogaerts shifts to second, the star free agent would go a long way toward the Mariners maintaining the momentum of their first playoff entrance in a generation.
As for Boston, moving Trevor Story to short would be the obvious backup plan should Bogaerts depart. But they’d need some help in the lineup, and Nimmo would be a great fit with his speed, power and ability to play center (Kiké Hernández can shift to second).
Prediction No. 8: Correa reunites with an old friend
Boring prediction: Carlos Correa signs with a big-market team.
Bold prediction: Carlos Correa signs with the Orioles!
After doing a short-term deal with the Twins last offseason, Correa will obviously be seeking a bigger and more lasting commitment this time around. Maybe he gets it from the Twins, who obviously loved having him around. But you’ll also hear his name attached to big-market clubs like the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies and perhaps the Yankees.
That’s all boring. The team that’s going to step up and sign Correa is the up-and-coming O’s, who might have to darn well double their payroll to sign a player like this, but who have plenty of flexibility and incentive to do so. Correa would further legitimize the effort to turn the Orioles into real contenders, and of course general manager Mike Elias was largely responsible for Correa going No. 1 overall in the Draft during his Houston tenure.
There are clear impediments to a deal, including the Orioles’ iffy ownership situation, their questionable contention status and the Camden Yards left-field wall that is no longer friendly to right-handed hitters. But you asked for a bold prediction, didn’t you? Baltimore would be bold.
Prediction No. 9: A star swap!?!?!?!?
Boring prediction: The Guardians keep Shane Bieber, and the Pirates keep Bryan Reynolds.
Bold prediction: Shane Bieber and Bryan Reynolds are involved in a trade for each other!
You’ll see both of these names on plenty of “trade candidate” lists and, hey, maybe something will happen. But the Buccos already rebuffed offers for Reynolds last summer, and, even though Bieber is getting more expensive entering his final two rounds of arbitration before free agency, a Guardians team that rose back to contention this season should be in absolutely no hurry to move its ace (moving Zach Plesac or Aaron Civale would make way more sense).
Again, though, the whole point of this piece is to swing big, so let’s try to make an argument for why this would work: Bieber rebuilt his value after 2021 shoulder issues, and it might be tempting for the Guards, who have some impact arms looming in the high Minors, to cash in on that value while also lengthening their lineup. Reynolds is under control through 2025 and reasonably priced at $6.75 million for 2023, so Cleveland could apply some of its cost savings to a veteran stopgap starter.
Obviously, the Pirates have no business trading for Bieber, and that’s why we’d need a third team involved. You can probably guess who that third team would be.
Yep, that’s right. The Padres, who are always down to deal and have newfound vacancies in their rotation. In for a penny, in for a pound. They could further deal from a once-stout system by sending the Pirates a package of prospects fronted by shortstop Jackson Merrill and right-hander Dylan Lesko to get the Biebs.
Who says no? Um … probably everybody involved. That’s why this is bold!