Bryce Harper’s return, Aaron Nola’s contract

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December 25, 2022

Phillies predictions: Bryce Harper’s return, Aaron Nola’s contract

n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”type”:”rich”,”width”:550,”__typename”:”ExternalEmbedContent”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.4″:{“data”:{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.4.data”,”typename”:”ExternalEmbedContent”},”type”:”oembed”,”__typename”:”ExternalEmbed”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.5″:{“content”:”**1\. Aaron Nola will sign a contract extension this spring** nThis needs to happen. Nola has been one of baseball’s best pitchers for years. He is fifth in the Majors among pitchers with 21.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) since 2018, behind only Jacob deGrom (25.6), Max Scherzer (25.5), Gerrit Cole (23.2) and Zack Wheeler (22.1). Nobody has thrown more innings (871 2/3) in that span.”,”type”:”markdown”,”__typename”:”Markdown”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6″:{“contentDate”:”2022-10-29T04:40:59.305Z”,”description”:”Aaron Nola allows five earned runs and strikes out five batters across 4 1/3 innings of work in his Game 1 start against the Astros”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:00:58″,”mp4AvcPlayback”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2022/2022-10/28/19277ca4-b0cdf733-558071ef-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”slug”:”aaron-nola-k-s-five-astros”,”source”:”genie”,”tags”:[{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.0″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.1″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.2″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.3″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.4″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.5″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.6″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.7″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.8″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.9″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.10″,”typename”:”Tag”}],”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/bgk85bdkz3fu7mjwjwgm”,”title”:”Aaron 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feed”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.9″:{“slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.6.tags.10″:{“slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.7″:{“content”:”Nola’s presence in the rotation is a major reason why the Phillies never pursued deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón this offseason. (They feel they already have two aces, so their money would be better spent elsewhere.) Rodón just got six years, $162 million from the Yankees, but Nola is better and more reliable. He is six months younger, too. Pay the man.nn**2\. Trea Turner will hit leadoff on Opening Day** nEverybody loves to talk about the lineup, and that talk has picked up since Turner joined the Phillies. Thomson hinted at the Winter Meetings that he might want to take more advantage of Kyle Schwarber’s power while Bryce Harper recovers from Tommy John surgery. Turner is the only choice to replace Schwarber in the leadoff spot. Turner will see the Phillies’ first pitch of the 2023 season on March 30 in Texas, likely against deGrom.”,”type”:”markdown”,”__typename”:”Markdown”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8″:{“contentDate”:”2022-12-08T22:11:25.073Z”,”description”:”Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski welcomes Trea Turner and Turner talks about his new contract and joining the Phillies”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:03:03″,”mp4AvcPlayback”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2022/2022-12/08/a0effec8-0f3e7faf-4907e1dd-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”slug”:”phillies-welcome-trea-turner”,”source”:”genie”,”tags”:[{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.0″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.1″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.2″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.3″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.4″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.5″,”typename”:”Tag”}],”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/tx2dnsaapexa1tlll6yu”,”title”:”Phillies welcome Trea Turner “,”type”:”video”,”url”:”/video/phillies-welcome-trea-turner”,”__typename”:”Video”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.0″:{“slug”:”teamid-143″,”title”:”Philadelphia Phillies”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.1″:{“slug”:”playerid-607208″,”title”:”Trea Turner”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.2″:{“slug”:”transactions”,”title”:”transactions”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.3″:{“slug”:”press-conference”,”title”:”press conference”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.4″:{“slug”:”interview”,”title”:”interview”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.8.tags.5″:{“slug”:”send-to-news-mlb-feed”,”title”:”Send To News MLB feed”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.9″:{“content”:”**3\. Andrew Painter will finish in the top three for National League Rookie of the Year** nPainter, a right-handed starter, might open the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, because the Phillies will be monitoring his workload closely. But MLB Pipeline’s No. 24 prospect will be in the rotation at some point, and the prediction here is that he will live up to the hype.nn**4\. Harper will return in June** nThe Phillies said they expect Harper back by the All-Star break, but I believe agent Scott Boras when he said, “Our history with Bryce is that he has super-healing qualities.” Expect Harper back in June.”,”type”:”markdown”,”__typename”:”Markdown”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10″:{“contentDate”:”2022-11-23T23:32:42.664Z”,”description”:”The MLB Tonight crew discusses Bryce Harper’s surgery and recovery”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:02:46″,”mp4AvcPlayback”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2022/2022-11/23/06d8f70e-30686027-7ab1269e-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”slug”:”mlb-tonight-on-harper-s-surgery”,”source”:”genie”,”tags”:[{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.0″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.1″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.2″,”typename”:”Tag”},{“type”:”id”,”generated”:true,”id”:”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.3″,”typename”:”Tag”}],”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/ns0o8tpdnsarfczlk8ps”,”title”:”MLB Tonight on Harper’s surgery”,”type”:”video”,”url”:”/video/mlb-tonight-on-harper-s-surgery”,”__typename”:”Video”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.0″:{“slug”:”teamid-143″,”title”:”Philadelphia Phillies”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.1″:{“slug”:”playerid-547180″,”title”:”Bryce Harper”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.2″:{“slug”:”mlbn-mlb-tonight”,”title”:”MLB Tonight”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.10.tags.3″:{“slug”:”mlb-network”,”title”:”MLB Network”,”__typename”:”Tag”},”$ROOT_QUERY.getForgeContentBySlug({“locale”:”en-us”,”slug”:”phillies-predictions-bryce-harper-return-aaron-nola-contract”,”type”:”story”}).parts.11″:{“content”:”**5\. Rhys Hoskins will have a career year** nHoskins will be a free agent after next season, and he will make the most of his opportunity to establish his market with the best year of his career. That is saying something. Since his debut on Aug. 10, 2017, Hoskins has ranked in the 90th percentile among qualified players in on-base percentage (.353), 91st percentile in slugging percentage (.492) and 93rd percentile in OPS 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8:11 PM UTC

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Happy holidays, everybody.

Remember a year ago at this time? Almost nobody would have picked the Phillies to win the NL pennant in 2022. They had holes in left field, center field and the bullpen. There were concerns about Didi Gregorius at shortstop, Alec Bohm’s future at third base and Joe Girardi’s status as manager.

But everything came together on June 3, when Rob Thomson replaced Girardi. Who in the world would have predicted Thomson managing the Phillies, by the way? Nobody, not even Thomson.

So with that in mind, why not make a few 2023 predictions for the Phillies? I’m quite confident nobody will forward me this email in a few months and tell me how wildly wrong I was.

1. Aaron Nola will sign a contract extension this spring
This needs to happen. Nola has been one of baseball’s best pitchers for years. He is fifth in the Majors among pitchers with 21.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) since 2018, behind only Jacob deGrom (25.6), Max Scherzer (25.5), Gerrit Cole (23.2) and Zack Wheeler (22.1). Nobody has thrown more innings (871 2/3) in that span.

Nola’s presence in the rotation is a major reason why the Phillies never pursued deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón this offseason. (They feel they already have two aces, so their money would be better spent elsewhere.) Rodón just got six years, $162 million from the Yankees, but Nola is better and more reliable. He is six months younger, too. Pay the man.

2. Trea Turner will hit leadoff on Opening Day
Everybody loves to talk about the lineup, and that talk has picked up since Turner joined the Phillies. Thomson hinted at the Winter Meetings that he might want to take more advantage of Kyle Schwarber’s power while Bryce Harper recovers from Tommy John surgery. Turner is the only choice to replace Schwarber in the leadoff spot. Turner will see the Phillies’ first pitch of the 2023 season on March 30 in Texas, likely against deGrom.

3. Andrew Painter will finish in the top three for National League Rookie of the Year
Painter, a right-handed starter, might open the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, because the Phillies will be monitoring his workload closely. But MLB Pipeline’s No. 24 prospect will be in the rotation at some point, and the prediction here is that he will live up to the hype.

4. Harper will return in June
The Phillies said they expect Harper back by the All-Star break, but I believe agent Scott Boras when he said, “Our history with Bryce is that he has super-healing qualities.” Expect Harper back in June.

5. Rhys Hoskins will have a career year
Hoskins will be a free agent after next season, and he will make the most of his opportunity to establish his market with the best year of his career. That is saying something. Since his debut on Aug. 10, 2017, Hoskins has ranked in the 90th percentile among qualified players in on-base percentage (.353), 91st percentile in slugging percentage (.492) and 93rd percentile in OPS (.846).