When Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga last weekend, taking a two-game lead in the West Coast Conference standings, the Gaels seemed set to snap Mark Few’s 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the league title.
Then Thursday happened, and now the Zags once again control their destiny. Not long after Gonzaga beat San Francisco 99-81 late Thursday, Saint Mary’s lost 78-74 in overtime at Loyola Marymount and fell to 10-1 in the WCC. Gonzaga is 9-2. That means the Zags are guaranteed to win at least a share of the WCC for the 11th straight season if they win every remaining game; their regular-season finale will be a home game against Saint Mary’s that could deal the Gaels a second league loss.
That’ll be a big one.
In the meantime, Saint Mary’s remains the team with the biggest discrepancy between where it ranks in some metrics and the strength of its actual body of work. Its computer numbers are super strong: The Gaels are No. 6 at BartTorvik.com, No. 7 in the NET, No. 7 at KenPom.com, No. 9 at EvanMiya.com and No. 11 in KPI.
They’re just 2-1 in Quadrant 1, however, with four losses outside of the first quadrant. That’s a lot for a ranked team. In fact, no other school in Friday morning’s updated CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 daily college basketball rankings — where Saint Mary’s is down to No. 16 — has more than three losses outside of the first quadrant. It’ll be interesting to see how the NCAA Tournament selection committee evaluates the Gaels on Selection Sunday. There’s likely going to be a big difference between where the computers suggest they should be seeded and where their résumé suggests they should be seeded.