Fantasy football sleepers, busts and breakouts for 2022

As we enter into the heart of fantasy football draft season, the ESPN Fantasy Football experts are here to bring you their latest sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2022 campaign, as defined here:

• Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2022.

• Bust: A player who is highly regarded and will underperform his ADP in 2022.

• Breakout: A player (rookies included) who will rise up with career-best numbers in 2022 and make a huge impact.

Our panel comprises the following ESPN Fantasy writers and editors: Stephania Bell, Matthew Berry, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Joe Kaiser, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, Eric Moody, Kyle Soppe y Field Yates.

Each analyst named a sleeper and a bust for each of the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, and their analysis and insight on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.

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Quarterback sleepers

Matthew Berry: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguares de Jacksonville
Matt Bowen: Derek Carr, Raiders de Las Vegas
Mike Clay: Aaron Rodgers, Empacadores de Green Bay
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Trey Lance, 49ers de San Francisco
Daniel Dopp: Derek Carr
Joe Kaiser: Justin Fields, Osos de chicago
Eric Karabell: Trevor Lawrence
Keith Lipscomb: Trevor Lawrence
Eric Moody: Matt Ryan, Potros de Indianápolis
Kyle Soppe: Trey Lance
Field Yates: Trey Lance
Stephania Bell: Matt Ryan: Ryan will be the fifth starting quarterback in as many years for the Colts, and reaction to his change of locale has been mostly tepid. But why? Yes, he’s 37 years old, but his 14 years in the league show he’s durable (he has missed just one game in his 12 years as a starter) and an experienced decision-maker who can get the ball to his receivers quickly (another trait already on display at minicamp). He showed in OTAs his arm is still strong, and he’ll play behind a better offensive line; instead of scrambling for his life behind the line of scrimmage, he can actually get the ball out on time. Earlier delivery gives the offense an advantage, leading to increased opportunities for Ryan’s receivers, especially when it comes to YAC … all of which translates to fantasy points.

Quarterback busts

Stephania Bell: Aaron Rodgers
Matthew Berry: Aaron Rodgers
Matt Bowen: Aaron Rodgers
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Aaron Rodgers
Daniel Dopp: Aaron Rodgers
Joe Kaiser: Kyler Murray, Cardenales de Arizona
Eric Karabell: Aaron Rodgers
Keith Lipscomb: Kyler Murray
Eric Moody: Aaron Rodgers
Kyle Soppe: Kyler Murray
Field Yates: Aaron Rodgers
Mike Clay: Joe Madriguera, Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow enjoyed a breakout 2021 season in which he paced the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt (YPA), while finishing no lower than eighth in passing yardage and TDs. And yet he finished eighth in fantasy points, with a ridiculous 47% of those points coming in three games — his only weekly finishes better than eighth on the season. Burrow didn’t add much with his legs (118 yards, 2 TDs), and that will need to change just to offset inevitable YPA regression to the mean. Yes, Burrow is emerging as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, but that has yet to translate to the high-end QB1 fantasy output that his ADP suggests.

Running back sleepers

Stephania Bell: Elijah Mitchell, 49ers de San Francisco
Matthew Berry: Ken Walker III, Halcones Marinos de Seattle
Matt Bowen: Miles Sanders, Águilas de Filadelfia
Mike Clay: Miles Sanders
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguares de Jacksonville
Daniel Dopp: AJ Dillon, Empacadores de Green Bay
Joe Kaiser: Ken Walker III
Keith Lipscomb: Travis Etienne Jr.
Eric Moody: Melvin Gordon III, Broncos de Denver
Kyle Soppe: AJ Dillon
Field Yates: Elijah Mitchell
Eric Karabell: Travis Etienne Jr.: Fantasy managers just need to forget about last season’s dysfunctional clown show that was the Jacksonville Jaguars and see all the potential in a new, competent coaching staff with a tantalizing, young offense. Trevor Lawrence will thrive with his college buddy Etienne, a 2021 first-round pick and the Jaguars’ new lead back, healthy after a lost season. Etienne boasts Alvin Kamara characteristics as a runner and pass-catcher. He’s fast, elusive and a terrific receiver, and injured James Robinson is way behind Etienne in terms of September readiness. Etienne has RB1 upside right now, but he’s going in flex range. Be prepared to jump a round or three to go get him.

Running back busts

Stephania Bell: James Conner, Cardenales de Arizona
Matthew Berry: Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
Matt Bowen: James Conner
Mike Clay: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Cordarrelle Patterson, Halcones de atlanta
Daniel Dopp: James Conner
Joe Kaiser: Cordarrelle Patterson
Eric Karabell: Cordarrelle Patterson
Keith Lipscomb: James Conner
Eric Moody: Josh Jacobs, Raiders de Las Vegas
Field Yates: James Conner
Kyle Soppe: Javonte Williams, Broncos de Denver: The idea of this exercise is to evaluate not only players but our user drafting patterns, and my decision to fade the talented sophomore is based on the latter. I love the upside, but I don’t love having to bank on that sort of growth out of my third-round pick. The Broncos not only brought in Russell Wilson to bolster the pass game; they also re-signed Melvin Gordon III. There’s no question Gordon is on the back nine of his career, but six straight seasons with at least eight rushing scores is rare air. “Rare” as in here is the list of players who have ever done that: LaDainian Tomlinson, Jim Brown, Adrian Peterson and Emmitt Smith. The top 15 RBs in terms of total points last season scored, on average, 12.1 touchdowns, and the presence of Gordon on this roster, not to mention a potentially more open offense to cater to Wilson, makes it tough to assume Williams reaches that threshold. Love the talent, hate the price.

Wide receiver sleepers

Stephania Bell: Chris Olave, Santos de Nueva Orleans
Matthew Berry: Robert Woods, Titanes de Tennessee
Matt Bowen: Russell Gage, Bucaneros de Tampa Bay
Mike Clay: Drake London, Halcones de atlanta
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Rondale Moore, Cardenales de Arizona
Daniel Dopp: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos de Denver
Joe Kaiser: Jerry Jeudy
Eric Karabell: Adam Thielen, Vikingos de Minnesota
Keith Lipscomb: Darnell Mooney, Osos de chicago
Kyle Soppe: Christian Kirk, Jaguares de Jacksonville
Field Yates: Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Eric Moody: Chris Olave: The Saints moved up from the 16th to the 11th spot in the 2022 NFL draft to select Olave. He’ll be a star in New Orleans. The time is right to go all-in on a rookie wide receiver. Olave stands out among the six receivers selected in Round 1. He’s a fluid route runner who ranks third in Ohio State history with 176 receptions and fifth in receiving yards with 2,711. Olave was able to accomplish this while playing alongside fellow first-round pick Garrett Wilson and projected 2023 first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Olave’s talent and position with the Saints, who desperately need help at wide receiver, certainly justify selection at his ADP. Olave could lead the team in targets.

Wide receiver busts

Stephania Bell: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
Matthew Berry: Jaylen Waddle, Delfines de Miami
Matt Bowen: Diontae Johnson, Acereros de Pittsburgh
Mike Clay: Allen Robinson II, Los Ángeles Rams
Daniel Dopp: Michael Thomas, Santos de Nueva Orleans
Joe Kaiser: Tyreek Hill, Delfines de Miami
Eric Karabell: Michael Thomas
Keith Lipscomb: Jaylen Waddle
Eric Moody: Gabriel Davis
Kyle Soppe: Jaylen Waddle
Field Yates: Mike Williams, Cargadores de Los Ángeles
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Allen Robinson II: His arrival in L.A. both strengthens the Rams’ passing game and gives him a fresh start coming off a disappointing 2021, but it also lands him in a supporting role. For all the Odell Beckham Jr.. comps, bear in mind that Beckham was fantasy football’s WR32 with a 33rd-ranked 17.1% target share during his Rams tenure, a touchdown-dependent player for our purposes. Robinson should have his share of productive games, but if he’s going among the top 25 at his position, he’s too pricey for my tastes.

Tight end sleepers

Stephania Bell: Irv Smith Jr., Vikingos de Minnesota
Matthew Berry: Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders
Mike Clay: Pat Freiermuth, Acereros de Pittsburgh
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Irv Smith Jr.
Daniel Dopp: Cole Kmet, Osos de chicago
Joe Kaiser: Engrama de Evan, Jaguares de Jacksonville
Eric Karabell: Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos de Denver
Keith Lipscomb: Albert Okwuegbunam
Eric Moody: Engrama de Evan
Kyle Soppe: Robert Tonyan, Empacadores de Green Bay
Field Yates: Logan Thomas
Matt Bowen: Cole Kmet: Kmet caught 60 of 91 targets last season. And we know the pass-catching traits are there to see the ball in Chicago’s new offensive system with quarterback Justin Fields entering his second pro season. It’s the anticipated red zone usage, however, that puts the third-year tight end in the mix for a potential breakout season. Kmet saw a total of just 12 red zone targets last year, with only six end zone targets. And he failed to log a single touchdown. But with tight end Jimmy Graham now out of the picture, there’s an open door for Kmet to see a boost in scoring opportunities — which would push him into the TE1 discussion.

Tight end busts

Stephania Bell: Darren Waller, Raiders de Las Vegas
Matthew Berry: Mike Gesicki, Delfines de Miami
Matt Bowen: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Mike Clay: Dawson Knox
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Hunter Henry, Patriotas de Nueva Inglaterra
Daniel Dopp: Dawson Knox
Eric Karabell: Hunter Henry
Keith Lipscomb: Darren Waller
Eric Moody: Dallas Goedert, Águilas de Filadelfia
Kyle Soppe: Darren Waller
Field Yates: Noah Fant, Halcones Marinos de Seattle
Joe Kaiser: Darren Waller: Waller was limited to 11 games due to injury last season, causing his numbers to plummet compared to the season before, when he finished with 107 receptions, 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns. Waller turns 30 in September, and the addition of Davante Adams over the offseason means the Raiders have one of the premier — and highest-paid — receivers in the NFL. While Adams will take some defensive attention away from Waller, he’s also going to take away targets.

2022 breakout players

Stephania Bell: Trey Lance, 49ers de San Francisco
Matthew Berry: Rashod Bateman, Los cuervos de Baltimore
Matt Bowen: Trey Lance
Mike Clay: Breece Hall, Jets de Nueva York
Tristan H. Cockcroft: J.K. Dobbins, Los cuervos de Baltimore
Daniel Dopp: Derek Carr, Raiders de Las Vegas
Joe Kaiser: Darnell Mooney, Osos de chicago
Eric Karabell: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos de Denver
Keith Lipscomb: Garrett Wilson, Jets de Nueva York
Eric Moody: Skyy Moore, Jefes de Kansas City
Kyle Soppe: Joshua Palmer, Cargadores de Los Ángeles
Field Yates: Darnell Mooney: Mooney has already stated his case as a budding star after finishing in the top 20 in both receptions and receiving yards last season. Among all players with at least 80 catches, Mooney’s 13.0 yards per catch ranked fourth, behind only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson y Ja'Marr Chase. Decent company. He’s a potential big-play threat with an obvious path toward massive volume, and I’m a firm believer that he and Justin Fields will take a decided leap forward this year. They’ve spent extensive time training together this offseason.