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Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for tonight’s NBA slate
By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Boucher’s Bounty: Chris Boucher (37% available) is finally playing heavy minutes and filling box scores for Toronto. Even though he might not be producing a ton of swats in recent games, Boucher has tallied a double-double in three of the last four and has played at least 30 minutes in four straight. Boucher can help fantasy rosters in all formats down the stretch, even against the best defense in the NBA in Boston. After all, much of Boucher’s production comes from crashing the boards, patrolling passing lanes, and lofting 24-footers.
Poku Party: Aleksej Pokusevski (92% available) has played at least 27 minutes in seven straight games, posting awesome defensive rates to go with respectable scoring, rebounding and assist results. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and other Thunder starters sidelined, “Poku” is poised to cruise past 30 fantasy points and help teams in all formats as a streaming candidate against a decimated Trail Blazers roster.
Fire Up Fultz: Markelle Fultz is available in nearly 90% of leagues and while his minutes cap limits his ceiling, he is worth a look with Jalen Suggs set to sit out a sixth consecutive game. Fultz has averaged over 18 shots per 36 minutes in his past five games and that’s a role worth streaming against a Cavs team that has suffered three straight losses.
Pinch Hit With J-Rich: Josh Richardson has scored at least 15 points in four straight games (all Spur wins), making three triples in each of those contests. He also has a steal in seven straight games and hasn’t missed a free throw in nearly three weeks. You have to swallow some FG% downside, but his role/matchup combination tonight is a rare find on the wire, especially as you attempt to either advance in your head-to-head playoffs or make up ground in a roto setting.
Oshae Day: The Pacers have ruled seven players out for tonight’s matchup with the Hawks. Oshae Brissett (83% available) has become a bankable offensive option for Indiana recently with at least eight boards in four of his last five games. Indiana is fully leaning into the lottery chase and Brissett should play heavy minutes against an Atlanta team that ranks 24th in rebounding percentage during the last 10 games.
The Other D. Mitchell: Sacramento might just not have De’Aaron Fox or Domantas Sabonis available for the remainder of the season due to respective injuries. We can at least be certain they aren’t playing against the Heat in Miami tonight, which sets up rising rookie Davion Mitchell (75% available) as a potential league-winning waiver addition. Mitchell has regularly cruised past point and assist props in recent starts and should once again orchestrate the Kings’ offense this evening.
Game of the Night
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CA
Line: Raptors (-3.5)
Moneyline: Raptors (-160), Celtics (+140)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 218.5 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (50.3%)
Key players ruled out: Robert Williams III
Questionable: Gary Trent Jr., Fred VanVleet
Doubtful: Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
Notable: The Celtics have failed to cover the second night of five of their past six back-ti-backs and in all five of those ATS losses, the over has come through.
Fantasy Streamer: Daniel Theis. Jayson Tatum (knee) and Al Horford (personal) are listed doubtful, while Robert Williams III has already been ruled out. Theis (62% available) projects as a solid streamer against the Raptors. He has averages 15.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per 40 minutes since rejoining the Celtics after the trade deadline. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Raptors -3.5. The Celtics are one of the hottest teams in the league when healthy, having won nine of their past 10 games, but the Raptors have won eight of their past 10 and are getting healthy as the playoffs approach. Their defensive length and multi-pronged offensive attack should be enough to overcome the depleted Celtics at home. — André Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Line: Nuggets (-3.5)
Moneyline: Nuggets (-170), Hornets (+145)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (55.9%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: JaMychal Green
Notable: Saturday’s win went under the total for Denver, snapping a streak of five straight overs cashing in their games.
Fantasy Streamer: Aaron Gordon (48% available). Gordon’s excellent play has continued over the past six games. He has averaged 17.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 2.0 APG in 29.6 MPG and could see even more minutes with JaMychal Green questionable. — Moody
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
Line: Cavaliers (-9.5)
Moneyline: Cavaliers (-475), Magic (+360)
Total: 215 points
BPI Projected Total: 214.5 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (71.8%)
Key players ruled out: Jalen Suggs
Notable: Overs are 6-1 in Cleveland’s past seven games but the Cavaliers have dropped four straight ATS.
Fantasy Streamer: Markelle Fultz. With Jalen Suggs out, Fultz (90% available) is in line for more minutes against the Cavaliers. The 23-year-old has averaged 20.7 points, 9.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. — Moody
Best bet: Darius Garland over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds Rajon Rondo will miss his eighth straight game with an ankle injury. Garland has averaged 24.4 PPG, 10.6 APG, and 4.0 RPG over that span. Point guards have averaged 23.6 PPG, 8.2 APG and 6.7 RPG against the Magic this season and Garland has a good chance of exceeding those averages. — Moody
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Line: Hawks (-7)
Moneyline: Hawks (-320), Pacers (+250)
Total: 235 points
BPI Projected Total: 236 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (69.4%)
Key players ruled out: Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, Isaiah Jackson
Questionable: Goga Bitadze, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari
Notable: Seven under tickets have cashed in Atlanta’s past 11 games.
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, FL
Line: Heat (-13)
Moneyline: Heat (-1000), Kings (+650)
Total: 219 points
BPI Projected Total: 224 points
BPI Win%: Heat (82.5%)
Key players ruled out: De’Aaron Fox
Questionable: P.J. Tucker, Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin
Notable: The Kings have covered three straight and seen four of their past five go over Vegas’ total.
Fantasy Streamer: Davion Mitchell. Mitchell (82% available) is set to start his fifth straight game with De’Aaron Fox out. He has averaged 21.2 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.0 RPG, and 1.0 SPG in 39 MPG. — Moody
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Line: Bulls (-5)
Moneyline: Bulls (-200), Knicks (+170)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 219 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (62.9%)
Key players ruled out: Quentin Grimes
Notable: The Bulls have seen four of their past five and nine of their past 11 go under the total.
Best bet: DeMar DeRozan over 32.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Bulls are looking to win as many games as possible to secure their playoff position. DeRozan hs averaged 25.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, and 5.7 RPG over the past 14 games. He’s also had plenty of success against the Knicks with 24 PPG, 5.3 APG and 6.0 RPG. — Moody
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Line: Spurs (-6.5)
Moneyline: Spurs (-270), Rockets (+220)
Total: 237 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.5 points
BPI Win%: Spurs (56.6%)
Key players ruled out: Romeo Langford
Questionable: Lonnie Walker IV
Notable: After failing to cover eight of 10 games, the Spurs have managed to cover the number in each of their past three.
Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Murray can post a triple-double against the Rockets. He has averaged 24.3 PPG, 8.9 APG, and 8.5 RPG in the month of March. The Rockets rank 30th in the league in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions and have been dominated by point guards this season. — Moody
Best bet: Under 237 points. Both the Spurs and Rockets have combined with their opponents to score fewer than 237 points in their last four games and seven of their last nine overall. Plus, anytime the BPI projected total is double digits below the line, it at least draws the eye and makes me consider. —Snellings
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
Line: Grizzlies (-10.5)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-650), Warriors (+450)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 226 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (76%)
Key players ruled out: Stephen Curry, Ja Morant
Questionable: Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Doubtful: Otto Porter Jr., Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
Notable: The Grizzlies have covered each of their past four games and only once over that stretch has an over ticket cashed.
Fantasy streamer: Jonathan Kuminga. As the Warriors prepare for the playoffs, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Otto Porter Jr. are listed as doubtful. Kuminga (92% available) could be in line for a large chunk of minutes due to those absences. He has averaged 12 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 1.2 APG as a starter this season. — Moody
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, OR
Line: Thunder (-2.5)
Moneyline: Thunder (-145), Trail Blazers (+125)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224 points
BPI Win%: Thunder (57.9%)
Key players ruled out: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Hart, Anfernee Simons, Trendon Watford
Notable: Think this total is high? Back the Thunder. The Blazers have failed to cover each of their past eight games that have gone under the total.
Best bet: Tre Mann over 18.5 points. Mann has thrived as the primary offensive weapon for the injury-depleted Thunder as of late. He has averaged 21.8 PPG (46.5 FG%, 90.0 FT%, 43.5 3P%), 5.4 RPG, 4.0 3PG and 1.8 APG over his past five games. Facing a Trail Blazers squad Monday that is in the same position as the Thunder, Mann has an opportunity to put up big numbers. — Snellings
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Atlanta Hawks (120.9 points)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (117.1 points)
3. Denver Nuggets (116.2 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Sacramento Kings (102.5 points)
2. Orlando Magic (104 points)
3. Chicago Bulls (107.6 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Miami Heat (82.5%)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (76%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (71.8%)