The ESPN fantasy and betting cheat sheet is your pregame destination for our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Thursday’s slate
By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Phoenix rising: The Suns’ incredible season has continued even with Chris Paul sidelined. A key part to Phoenix’s success has been the play Cameron Payne (58% available), who ranks fifth in the NBA in assists per game (8.9) over the past 10 games. Payne is a great addition for the final weeks of the season as the key distributor on an efficient offense with willing shooters. The Suns face a Denver team tonight that has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to point guards this season.
Action Jaxson: After struggling to find his place in the rotation since being drafted, Jaxson Hayes (91% available) has shifted into a starting role next to Jonas Valanciunas. Hayes is finally putting together fantasy-relevant production in this role, averaging 14.5 points, seven rebounds, and 1.3 blocks over his past six games. He’s even averaged 1.2 3-pointers per game over this time, adding value across several categories. With Brandon Ingram listed as doubtful, Hayes should start against a Bulls defense that has allowed 57 DraftKings PPG to centers over the past 15 games.
Back-to-back: Both the Pacers and Grizzlies played hard fought games yesterday and could play with their rotation a bit tonight. De’Anthony Melton and Goga Bitadze are two names available in over 90% of leagues that stood out last night and could again tonight. Melton has made 15 triples over his past four contests with at least four dimes in seven of his 10 games played this month. He’s not at all shy about letting it fly, making him a counting stat threat at the very least. Bitadze relies more on efficiency and is shooting nearly 72% from the field in March. He’s made multiple 3’s or pulled down at least seven boards in five of his past six games. With his minutes trending to the mid-20’s of late, there reason to like what he offers as a streamer down the stretch of the regular season.
Buying Brooks: Sticking with the Grizzlies’ rotation, look for Dillon Brooks (66% available) to provide scoring and defensive upside, as he’s scored at least 20 points in consecutive games and meets a Pacers team that ranks 26th in defensive rating on the season.
Injury updates: After missing the last 15 games with a finger injury, OG Anunoby (21% available) has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s matchup with Cleveland. While Jarrett Allen remains out, Lauri Markkanen (47%) has averaged 19 points and 7.7 boards over the past week and Kevin Love (70%) has been a strong target for 3-point props.
Game of the Night
Line: Nuggets (-4)
Money line: Nuggets (-180), Suns (+155)
Total: 232 points
BPI Projected Total: 217.5 points
BPI Win%: Suns (51.1%)
Key players ruled out: Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul
Notable: Two weeks ago was the last time an under hit in a Denver game and the Nuggets are just 3-6 ATS over their past nine.
Fantasy streamer: Jae Crowder. Crowder (82% available) in 82% has averaged 9.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.4 SPG in 28.2 MPG. He should see his usage increase with Cameron Johnson out and power forwards have thrived against the Nuggets, averaging 21.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.0 SPG and 1.11 BPG this season. — Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Bones Hyland (88.7% available) just keeps going about his business under the radar. He’s now averaging 16.5 PPG (52.3 FG%, 78.6 FT%, 51.3 3P%), 4.7 APG, 3.5 RPG and 3.3 3PG in 24.5 MPG over his last six games, providing consistent all-around value even in limited minutes off the bench. — André Snellings
Best bet: Aaron Gordon over 21.5 points + assists + rebounds. Gordon has averaged 16 PPG, 3.0 APG, and 5.3 RPG over the last four games and is trending up at a perfect time for a Nuggets team fighting for playoff position. — Moody
Best bet: Suns +4. Since Devin Booker returned to the lineup, the Suns are 7-1 with a +14.6 point average scoring margin even with Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson sidelined. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have been up-and-down as of late, losing four of their last seven with a -1.7 point scoring margin during that stretch. According to BPI, the Suns should be slight road favorites in a toss-up game, so the points they’re getting here are added value. — Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Line: Raptors (-5.5)
Money line: Raptors (-220), Cavaliers (+180)
Total: 215.0 points
BPI Projected Total: 215.5 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (67.8%)
Key players ruled out: Rajon Rondo, Jarrett Allen
Notable: Under tickets have cashed in nine of the past 12 Raptor games.
Line: Grizzlies (-12.0)
Money line: Grizzlies (-900), Pacers (+600)
Total: 238.0 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.5 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (82%)
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: Unders are 3-1 and the Grizzlies are 1-3 ATS in Memphis’ past four games on the backend of a back-to-back.
Fantasy streamer: Steven Adams. Adams had 13 points and 13 rebounds in the Grizzlies last game against the Pacers. It could happen again. Adams has averaged 9.0 PPG and 11 RPG in his last eight games. — Moody
Line: Bucks (-9.5)
Money line: Bucks (-550), Wizards (+400)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 239 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (82.6%)
Key players ruled out: Kyle Kuzma, Khris Middleton
Notable: The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their past nine after failing to cover six of seven games prior.
Fantasy streamer: Rui Hachimura. Hachimura (92.5% available) is a viable streamer with Kyle Kuzma out. Over the past eight games, Hachimura has averaged 13.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, and 1.0 SPG. — Moody
Best bet: Kristaps Porzingis over 29.5 points + assists + rebounds. Porzingis has averaged 21.6 PPG, 3.0 APG, and 8.4 RPG with a usage rate of 31% over the Wizards’ past five games. Porzingis’ production should increase with Kuzma off the floor. — Moody
Line: Pelicans (-2.0)
Money line: Pelicans (-130), Bulls (+110)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.5 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (70.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: DeMar DeRozan
Doubtful: Brandon Ingram
Notable: Unders are 11-2 in Chicago’s past 13 games (the Bulls are just 3-10 ATS over that stretch)
Best bet: Pelicans -2.0. The Bulls have been struggling for weeks now, going 3-9 with a -7.9 point average scoring margin over their past 12 games. The Pelicans have had some difficulties with Brandon Ingram injured, but they’ve had feisty CJ McCollum there to lead the way. According to BPI, the Pelicans should be favored to win tonight with an estimated scoring margin of 6.1 points.
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Milwaukee Bucks (125.2 points)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (122.4 points)
3. New Orleans Pelicans (114.8 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (105.3 points)
2. Denver Nuggets (108. points)
3. Chicago Bulls (108.6 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Milwaukee Bucks (82.6%)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (82%)
3. New Orleans Pelicans (70.7%)