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What you need to know for Wednesday’s slate
By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Dime Time: The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant, positioning Tyus Jones (97% available) as the team’s starting point guard in a matchup with a Brooklyn team that has surrendered 49.8 DraftKings PPG to point guards, the fifth-highest in the NBA. During his last two starts in place of Morant, Jones has averaged nine assists and sank multiple 3-pointers in each outing.
Bullish on Bullock: Luka Doncic will sit tonight and while his play-making role will sorely be missed, it does open up plenty of usage for other players against the worst defense in the NBA. Reggie Bullock (97% available) carries significant downside, but the reward stands to outweigh the risk for roto leaguers looking to stream shooting. Over the past two weeks, Bullock has launched 59 shots … 49 have come from 3-point land. He does have 16 rebounds over his past three games and has added a block in three of four contests, so there is some hope for additional value on top of strictly a 3PM streamer/punt play.
Niang Gang: Georges Niang (98% available) doesn’t carry the star power of his teammates, but don’t rule him out as a viable option down the stretch. His minutes have increased in three straight games and he’s averaged over 11 PPG (2.8 3PM) for the month of March. The upside is limited given the usage of those around him, but he’s clearly carved out a role on a team that has seven games in the next 12 days.
Bankable: Drew Eubanks (91% available) hometown kid that has worked his way into a meaningful role for the Trail Blazers over the past few weeks. He has averaged 14.6 points and 8.2 rebounds over his past five games, including a team-leading 13.8 rebounding chances per game. Eubanks has become a solid streaming option and has collected at least eight rebounds in five of his last six games.
Royal Depth: With Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox likely in street clothes, it’s time to roster Davion Mitchell (94% available). The defensive-minded rookie popped for 28 points and nine dimes in Sacramento’s loss to the Suns and should be busy against Indiana’s soft perimeter defense. It’s also worth noting Donte DiVinvenzo (62% available) enjoys the largest leap in usage rate on the team when both Fox and Sabonis off the floor.
Bogdan Balling: Bogdan Bogdanovic (27% available) has scored at least 30 points in two of his last three games and tonight meets a Pistons team that has allowed nearly 43 DraftKings PPG to shooting guards. The Hawks have posted an elite offensive rating of 130 (points per 100 possessions) with Bogdanovic on the floor over the past three games, evidence his production is influencing the team’s recent success. A solid streaming addition — even in shallower leagues — Bogdanovic is also a strong target for scoring props given the soft matchup.
Game of the Night
Line: Nets (-2.5)
Moneyline: Nets (-135), Grizzlies (+115)
Total: 236 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.5 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (61.9%)
Key players ruled out: Ja Morant
Questionable: Seth Curry (ankle)
Doubtful: Goran Dragic (knee)
Notable: The books have yet to figure out how to evaluate the Nets on the road. In their past nine games outside of Brooklyn, they are 7-0-2 ATS with over tickets cashing in seven of those games.
Fantasy Streamer: Patty Mills. With Seth Curry (ankle) questionable and Goran Dragic (knee) doubtful, Mills (82% available) will have a bigger role in Memphis tonight. He has averaged 16.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per 40 minutes. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Nets -1.0. The Grizzlies have been solid without Ja Morant this season, but the Nets have been sizzling of late when Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are both available. The Nets have won the past three games that both have played in by a whopping 82 points, including a 29-point blowout of the Atlantic-leading 76ers in Philadelphia. Facing a Morant-less Grizzlies squad, the Nets should have the advantage. — André Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Line: 76ers (-7.5)
Moneyline: 76ers (-320), Lakers (+250)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.5 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (65.8%)
Key players ruled out:
Questionable: LeBron James (knee), Talen Horton-Tucker (ankle)
Notable: The Lakers can’t string victories together, but overs have been cashing on a consistent basis (6-2 over the past eight).
Best bet: James Harden over 40.5 points + assists rebounds. Harden has averaged 21 PPG, 10 APG, and 6.6 RPG in March, while shooting 40 percent from the field. The Lakers have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to point guards and the fourth-most to shooting guards. Harden should have a field day in Los Angeles. — Moody
Line: Hornets (-6.5)
Moneyline: Hornets (-280), Knicks (+230)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.5 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (68.1%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Julius Randle
Notable: Three of New York’s past four games have gone under the total, a number that might not seem significant until you realize that just three of their previous 10 games went under.
Line: Hawks (-5.5)
Moneyline: Hawks (-230), Pistons (+190)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (52.8%
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: We’ve seen three straight Detroit games go over the total after a run where six of seven cashed under tickets.
Line: Pacers (-5.5)
Moneyline: Pacers (-230), Kings (+190)
Total: 236 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.5 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (64.4%)
Key players ruled out: De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis
Questionable: Isaiah Jackson (concussion), Tyrese Haliburton, Chris Duarte (toe)
Notable: The Pacers are just 7-13 ATS over their past 20 (2-8 ATS over that run at home).
Fantasy Streamer: Goga Bitadze (96.0% available) has started the last two games for the Pacers with Isaiah Jackson out and totaled 35 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals in those two games. He’s averaged 16.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.6 3PG, 1.2 BPG and 0.8 SPG in 22.4 MPG in his past five games — Snellings
Line: Celtics (-5)
Moneyline: Celtics (-220), Jazz (+180)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.5 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (67.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: Three straight Boston games have gone over the total. In fact, 11 of their past 15 have gone over as the books seem to be overcorrecting for their elite defense.
Line: Heat (-7)
Moneyline: Heat (-280), Warriors (+230)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 214 points
BPI Win%: Heat (74.9%)
Key players ruled out: Stephen Curry
Notable: After a nice 6-2-2 run ATS, the Heat have failed to cover in each of their past four games.
Line: Suns (-1.5)
Moneyline: Suns (-125), Timberwolves (+105)
Total: 236 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (54%)
Key players ruled out: Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul
Questionable: Karl-Anthony Towns (forearm)
Notable: The Timberwolves have covered 10 of their past 12 games and one of those failures to cover was Monday night, a game in which they did cover the opening line.
Line: Magic (-2)
Moneyline: Magic (-130), Thunder (+110)
Total: 219 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: Magic (53.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle)
Notable: Have the Thunder become a value? They’ve covered four straight and seen five of their past six go over the total. In fact, 13 of the past 16 Oklahoma City have gone over the number.
Line: Mavericks (-9.5)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-450), Rockets (+350)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 219.5 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (75.3%)
Key players ruled out: Luka Doncic (ankle) and Davis Bertans (knee)
Notable: The Mavericks have seen six of their past eight games go under the number and face a bottom-5 team tonight in terms of offensive efficiency.
Fantasy Streamer: Dorian Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith will benefit from Luka Doncic and Davis Bertans being out. He’s averaged 12.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 1.6 APG over the past five games and should flourish against a Rockets team that ranks last in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Best bet: Rockets +10 over Mavericks. The Mavericks just aren’t the same team without Doncic, sporting a 6-10 record in the 16 games he’s missed this season. While the Rockets are a lottery team, the Mavs without Doncic shouldn’t be giving 10 points against anyone. The last time they faced the Rockets without Doncic, Houston won by 24 points. — Snellings
Line: Spurs (-8)
Moneyline: Spurs (-330), Blazers (+260)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.5 points
BPI Win%: Spurs (68.9%)
Key players ruled out: Lonnie Walker IV, Romeo Langford
Notable: It would seem that the books have adjusted properly on what the Blazers are (or aren’t) doing. Portland is 4-2 ATS in their past six on the heels of dropping six-in-a-row.
Fantasy Streamer: Brandon Williams. Williams (92% available) has stepped up in Anfernee Simons‘ absence. he’s averaged 16.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.0 APG and 1.1 SPG over the past 12 games while shooting 40.7% from the field. — Moody
Fantasy Streamer: Devin Vassell. Vassell (88% available) has filled the void left by Lonnie Walker IV (back) and Romeo Langford (hamstring). He’s averaged 14 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.2 APG and 1.4 SPG over the past five games and the Trail Blazers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Fantasy Streamer: Trendon Watford (80.1% available) is averaging 17.1 PPG (50.5 FG%, 83.3 FT%), 5.7 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.1 SPG and 0.7 3PG in his last seven outings. — Snellings
Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. Murray has averaged 21 PPG, 9.3 APG, and 8.4 RPG with a usage rate of 27% this season. He faces a Trail Blazers team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game. Murray has triple-double potential for tonight. — Moody
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Indiana Pacers (120.5 points)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (116.2 points)
3. Sacramento Kings (116.2 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Golden State Warriors (103.3 points)
2. Houston Rockets (105.8 points)
3. New York Knicks (107.2 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Dallas Mavericks (75.3%)
2. Miami Heat (74.9%)
3. San Antonio Spurs (68.9%)