Harold Reynolds called the other day, and usually this means he wants to talk about “The Bachelor.” But this time, the MLB Network analyst really did want to talk about baseball.
“We used to talk about five-tool players,” Reynolds said. “What about five-tool teams?”
The five-tool player, for the uninitiated, excels in hitting for average, hitting for power, defense, speed and arm strength.
The five-tool team — a concept christened by Reynolds in-between “Bachelor” viewings — excels in all five categories, but with a twist. Pure speed is replaced by team-wide baserunning and arm strength is replaced by the strength of the pitching staff.
It’s a fun concept to explore on the cusp of Opening Day. So once a certain reality dating show wrapped its latest season, I dove in, using the following statistical categories to determine which clubs rate as above average in each area:
1. Hitting for average: Team expected batting averages (xBA) from 2020 are more meaningful than actual batting averages, because they remove defense from the equation. So that was my primary guide.
2. Hitting for power: Same deal with expected slugging percentages (xSLG), which use exit velocities and launch angles to see how comparable batted balls fared.
4. Baserunning: Stolen bases are fine and all. But FanGraphs’ Baserunning (BsR) stat is, for my money, the best measure of how a team fares in this department, accounting not just for stolen bases but taking the extra base and other factors.
Checking all five of those boxes isn’t easy. The Yankees, for example, are clearly an elite team in MLB, and yet they are not a five-tool team, because they have not graded out well defensively the past two seasons (and have basically the same position-player personnel this year).
Because most of the categories are difficult to project and players have obviously moved around since last season, there is a fair amount of subjectivity at play here.
But these are the four teams that best fit the “five-tool” criteria. (It would be more fun and appropriate if there were five five-tool teams, but you can’t skew science!)
Well, duh. The Dodgers aren’t perfect, but it makes sense that a superstar- and depth-laden squad would rate well in these five key areas.
Hitting for power? The Dodgers ranked first in xSLG (.514) and in isolated power (.227) last season. And for both of these offensive categories, the retention of the majority of their lineup leads you to believe they can continue to rate positively in these areas.
Baserunning? The only iffy one here. The Dodgers actually rated negatively in BsR (minus-5.1) last season but were the sixth-best baserunning team in MLB in 2019 (11.9). Given that two of their worst individual BsR scores last year came from the now-departed Joc Pederson (minus-2.1) and Enrique Hernández (minus-1.1), I gave L.A. a passing grade on this one.
Here’s yet another reason to get hyped for this NL West rivalry this year: It’s the only division with two — count ‘em, two! — five-tool teams!
Baserunning? The Padres swiped an MLB-high 55 bags last year – almost one per game (which in this day and age is quite a feat)! Their 2.1 BsR mark was a not-as-impressive 13th in MLB, but at least that’s above average. Tatis (26), Trent Grisham (15), Tommy Pham (15) and Wil Myers (13) are all projected by Steamer for double-digit stolen-base totals.
Pitching? Bringing in Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove put the Padres atop FanGraphs’ starting WAR projections. And while the bullpen does have some current injury concerns, it is fourth in projected WAR. This club has a lot of depth via the high-upside arms in its system, too.
The three-time-defending NL East champs are going to face stiff competition in what very well might be the deepest division in the game. But at least they are equipped for the fight.
Hitting for power? No problem with Marcell Ozuna back. The Braves tied the Dodgers for the Majors’ best slugging percentage (.483) and were third in xSLG (.490) and second in isolated power (.215) last season.
Defense? Here’s the biggest question mark. The Braves actually ranked 24th in DRS (minus-12) last year but were a more respectable 15th (plus-19) in 2019. Importantly, they were fifth in OAA (plus-11) last season. I’m obviously leery of Ozuna actually playing in the outfield as opposed to DH’ing, but rookie center fielder Cristian Pache profiles as an elite defender. So ultimately, I’ll lean toward the Braves profiling well defensively this year.
Pitching? Another question mark. The Braves really struggled in the rotation last year, but signing Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly and getting Mike Soroka back should address that. The bullpen had three big departures (Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Darren O’Day) but retains good talent. FanGraphs has the Braves sixth in projected run prevention, eighth in projected starting WAR and seventh in reliever WAR.
Though the Sox face an early test with the pectoral injury that robs Eloy Jiménez from their lineup for the next five to six months, they remain a popular pick to overtake the Twins in the AL Central. And they are arguably a five-tool team.
Hitting for average? This is the South Siders’ iffy area, especially with Jiménez (.296 average last year) on the shelf. They ranked sixth in average last year (.261) but just 17th in xBA (.249). We’ll still give them the benefit of the doubt, for we’re going to see a lot of rookies Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn this year, and those are both advanced hitters who could make an impact quickly (Madrigal hit .340 in 29 games last year).
Hitting for power? The Sox ranked fifth in slugging (.453) and isolated power (.192) last season. They were seventh in xSLG (.451). Again, even without Jiménez, their lineup has continued upside from there. Yoan Moncada, for instance, saw a 163-point drop in his SLG last season after a COVID-19 battle, so he’s a clear bounceback candidate.
Baserunning? Chicago ranked about average in BsR last year but 11th over the last two seasons (4.8). So it would be a stretch to call the Sox elite in this area, but they do have three regulars — Luis Robert (22 projected steals, per Steamer), Madrigal (20) and Tim Anderson (17) — who are plus runners are projected for more than 15 stolen bases.