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This week, we focus on the MVP race for the second time this month. Both leagues have some sizable favorites, but is it worth taking them currently? Or do these big favorites open an opportunity to take a longer shot? Let’s dive into it.
Can we just give Judge the award already? I know that’s not how any of this works but still, I mean c’mon. The man is an unstoppable force, even with the Yankees in a free fall during the month of August. It also really speaks to how much Judge has done before this time to still be a -650 favorite. With injuries shuffling the Yankees’ lineup around, teams have needed to pitch to Judge as much as they have in the past. In fact, with Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup, Judge has seen the third-lowest percent of pitches in the strike zone at 42% in all of Major League Baseball. 597 with six home runs, 15 RBIs and 13 runs scored.
Judge has done more than enough to take down this award, and he’s going to get some help soon. Stanton is expected back in the Yankees’ lineup soon, and that means teams will be forced to pitch to Judge once again. That’s when Judge was clubbing double-digit home runs each month and knocking in at least 20 runs. While you’ve missed the boat on taking Judge to win MVP if you haven’t already, we still have some other players to look at for this award over in the National League.
The last time we checked in on Goldschmidt, he was only -150 to win the MVP Award. A few weeks later, he’s really starting to run away with it at -400. No one is even a real threat at this point, at least betting-wise, as Nolan Arenado is the next man up with 12-1 odds. At this rate, it will really take something drastic for someone else to pull ahead of Goldschmidt, just like we have in the American League with Judge.
Goldy is on pace for his second-best month of the season. Through 22 games in August, he’s slashing .383/.469/.790 with nine home runs, 27 RBIs and six doubles. While it didn’t seem possible, he very well could have another month with at least 10 home runs, which he did back during his ridiculous month of May. Goldy had 23 extra-base hits that month to go with 33 RBIs while hitting .404. I didn’t think it was possible to replicate a month like that, but he has a few more days to get there.
On the season, Goldy was tied with Arenado for the highest WAR in the National League amongst qualified hitters before his two-homer, five-RBI game against the Cubs on Thursday. Goldy does have the advantage in numerous other categories though, like on-base percentage, slugging, home runs, RBIs and runs, so it’s not a surprise to see him as a sizable favorite over his teammate. I’ve honestly been waiting for Goldschmidt to cool off, which is why I was in on Austin Riley earlier in the month, but at this rate, it may be too far gone. Unless Arenado or Riley start to dramatically heat up, Goldschmidt seems as if he’s wrapped this one up as well.
I’m not expecting Freeman to take down this award over Goldschmidt, but he has moved himself up in the odds recently. Hovering around the 20-1 range for a while, Freeman is now down to 16-1 in the National League. While Freeman isn’t flashing the power like Goldschmidt is, he’s been an on-base machine this entire season. His .400 on-base percentage ranks him fourth in the Majors, behind Goldschmidt, Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez. That said, Freeman is at .400 while playing the greatest number of games at 123.
It’s a very long shot that Freeman would do enough to overtake Goldschmidt and Arenado at this point. As I mentioned, I think Goldy has this all but wrapped up. But I think if you’re looking for more of a long shot, Freeman and his ability to get on base is something to look at. His on-base percentage in the second half sits at .409 while his slugging is at .492. We always knew the move to Los Angeles would take away from his home run numbers a bit, but he’s still clubbing a ton of doubles with 41 on the season. Long shot, yes — but I do like what Freeman can bring, especially with how often he’s on base.
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