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A lot of the scoring has been done in the early innings this series, so the over on the first five innings total (over 4.5 runs -120) on DraftKings Sportsbook is in play, as well. But the game total remains the safest bet with what we’ve seen so far.
These two offenses pack a punch, hitting this over in Game 2 and coming up one run short in the opener. In fact, both lineups have come close to hitting the over on this total by themselves, with the Braves scoring six runs in Game 1 and the Astros posting seven in Game 2. Couple their recent production with the fact both Atlanta and Houston will face right-handed pitchers to start Game 3 — the type of pitchers these two lineups were among the best against throughout the regular season — and the over should hit again on Friday.
José Urquidy was out of his mind in Game 2, but it’s still worth noting his seven strikeouts from the win as we look toward Game 3. Like his fellow Houston right-hander, Garcia didn’t get off to a strong start this postseason. But, Houston did turn to him ahead of Urquidy in both the ALDS and ALCS. As a result, once the Astros took back the advantage vs. Boston, Garcia got the nod for the third time this postseason.
And Game 6 of the ALCS was where we saw a change in Garcia. It’s unclear exactly what led to the shift in pitch quality, but the right-hander was lights out vs. Boston, striking out seven over 5 2/3 innings of shutout baseball.
But to bring it back to Urquidy’s Game 2 performance, he hit this over through the first four innings, punching out seven by the end of his five-inning performance. Urquidy post a 21.3% K rate this season. Garcia’s K rate was 26.4% throughout the regular season, and he punched out five-plus in 23 of his 30 starts. Of those 23 starts, he failed to record an out in the sixth inning 12 times, so he’s clearly capable of hitting this over with limited opportunities.
Alvarez is 1-for-2 on hitting the over for this prop in the series even though he only has one hit — a Game 1 triple. He also started off the ALCS slowly, but he made out all right for himself vs. Boston. Ian Anderson was solid against both righties and lefties this season, but left-handed hitters did take him deep four more times than right-handed hitters, despite the latter group finishing with 25 more plate appearances (17 more at-bats) against him this year.
Atlanta will continue to pitch Alvarez carefully, but it’s not like that doesn’t happen outside of the postseason. Good hitters work through that — it’s part of why they’re good hitters.
Even though every one of the six runs scored while Max Fried was on the mound in Game 2 was earned, some of the craziness ensued throughout his five innings of work wasn’t his fault. There’s no reason to expect the Braves to replicate that second-inning sloppiness.
While I don’t know that the Braves will make the trip back to Houston with the series lead, they’re not going to lose the first World Series game Atlanta has hosted this century. The Dodgers punched back in the NLCS like Houston did on Wednesday. This isn’t uncharted territory for the Braves.
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