It’s that time of year when the postseason picture seems to change on a near-daily basis.
That was certainly the case on Monday, when some teams took advantage of another club’s off-day — and some teams did not. The result was five teams being separated by a total of just four games for the two American League Wild Card spots entering Tuesday. On the National League side, five teams began the day within 4 1/2 games of the final Wild Card spot.
Not to mention, there are also a pair of divisions in which the gap between first and second is less than two games.
While a lot can happen in the standings between now and when the postseason starts on Oct. 5, here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into Tuesday.
Reminder: While Major League Baseball expanded the postseason field to 16 teams for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, there once again will be only 10 playoff teams in 2021. Both the AL and NL will have three division winners and two Wild Card teams, who will face off in a win-or-go-home Wild Card Game for the right to advance to the Division Series.
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY:
AL Wild Card Game (Oct. 5)
Red Sox at Yankees
NL Wild Card Game (Oct. 6)
Padres at Dodgers
AL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Wild Card Game winner at Rays
White Sox at Astros
NL Division Series (starts Oct. 8)
Best-of-five format
Wild Card Game winner at Giants
Braves at Brewers
WHO IS NEXT: The Giants (88-50) have a magic number of 9 to clinch a postseason berth and the Dodgers (10) aren’t far behind. In terms of a division title, the Brewers have a magic number of 13 to clinch the NL Central.
Tight races to watch
NL West: Giants lead Dodgers by one game
NL East: Braves lead Phillies by 1 1/2 games and Mets by four games
AL Wild Card: Red Sox lead Mariners and Blue Jays by three games apiece, and A’s by 3 1/2 games for final spot
NL Wild Card: Padres lead Reds by one game, Phillies by two games, Cardinals by 3 1/2 games and Mets by 4 1/2 games for final spot
Trending up: The Phillies have won eight of their last 10 games to move within 1 1/2 games of the Braves in the NL East. Meanwhile, in the AL, the Blue Jays have won five straight games to close to within three games of the Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card spot.
Trending down: The Reds have lost seven of their last nine games to drop a game behind the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot.
CONTENDER BREAKDOWN
Clinched postseason berth: None
Almost there (90% postseason odds or better, per FanGraphs): Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, White Sox, Rays, Astros
In good shape (50-89% postseason odds): Yankees, Red Sox, Braves
In the mix (10-49% postseason odds): Padres, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays
Still alive (postseason odds above 1%): Mariners, Athletics, Mets, Cardinals