Baseball’s playoff picture is starting to take focus.
The Yankees clinched the AL East crown with a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The win also secured a first-round bye and at worst the second seed for the Bronx Bombers, which means they’ll have home-field advantage in the American League Division Series.
Over in the Senior Circuit, the Cardinals sealed the NL Central title with a 6-2 win over the Brewers, who were 6 1/2 games behind St. Louis coming into the day. The Cardinals will be the number 3 seed in the NL postseason picture and host whichever team secures the third and final Wild Card slot.
The Braves came out on top vs. the Nationals while the Mets were handed a loss against the Marlins. Both Atlanta and New York have identical 97-58 records, although the Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Braves due to a better head-to-head record. The two teams are set to play a pivotal three-game series this weekend in Atlanta.
While a lot can happen in the standings between now and when the postseason starts on Oct. 7, here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into Wednesday.
Reminder: As part of the new collective bargaining agreement with the Players Association, Major League Baseball expanded the postseason field from 10 to 12 teams ahead of the 2022 season. Both the AL and NL now have three Wild Card berths (up from two), with the top two seeds in each league receiving first-round byes. The other teams will pair up for the best-of-three Wild Card Series, in which all three games will be played at the home of the higher seed, with winners advancing to the Division Series.
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY:
AL Wild Card Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Mariners (6) at Guardians (3)
Rays (5) at Blue Jays (4)
Astros (1) and Yankees (2) have byes
NL Wild Card Series (Oct. 7)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Phillies (6) at Cardinals (3)
Padres (5) at Braves (4)
Dodgers (1) and Mets (2) have byes
AL Division Series (starts Oct. 11)
Best-of-five format
Rays/Blue Jays at Astros
Mariners/Guardians at Yankees
NL Division Series (starts Oct. 11)
Best-of-five format
Padres/Braves at Dodgers
Phillies/Cardinals at Mets
Who has clinched: The Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals.
Who is next: The Blue Jays (87-68) have a magic number of 2 to clinch a postseason berth.
Tight races to watch and tiebreakers
NL East: Mets and Braves are tied. Mets currently lead the season series, 9-7, and will clinch the tiebreaker* by winning at least one of the three games against Atlanta this weekend.
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays lead Rays by 1.5 games for first berth, Rays lead Mariners by 1.5 games for second berth, Mariners lead Orioles by 3.5 games for third berth.
Seeding battle: TB owns tiebreaker over TOR (10-9), SEA (5-2); SEA owns tiebreaker over TOR (5-2), BAL (4-2)
NL Wild Card: Padres lead Phillies by 2.5 games for second berth, Phillies lead Brewers by 1.5 games for third berth.
Seeding battle: PHI owns tiebreakers over SD (4-3), MIL (4-2); SD owns tiebreaker over MIL (4-3)
*Note: Under this new playoff system, no extra games will be played to break ties. All ties, including those for division titles and postseason berths, will be settled via a series of tiebreakers, the first of which is head-to-head record.
Trending up: The Braves won for the seventh time in 10 games with their victory over the Nationals on Tuesday.
Trending down: The Phillies lost for the seventh time in their past 10 games with their 2-1 loss to the Cubs on Tuesday.
Clinched postseason berth: Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Yankees, Guardians, Cardinals
Almost there (90% postseason odds or better): Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Padres
In good shape (50-89% postseason odds): Phillies
In the mix (10-49% postseason odds): Brewers
Still alive (Postseason odds above 0%): Orioles