With the conclusion of Sunday’s NOCO 400 at Martinsville, we are officially one-fourth of the way through the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season.
This is usually around the time of year when it starts to become clear who the title favorites are going to be. This season is no different, and three drivers right now have separated themselves from the pack.
The first is Kyle Larson, who won on Sunday for his second victory in the past three races. Larson could very easily have four wins already this year if not for being outmuscled in the closing laps at Las Vegas and Phoenix, where in both cases he was leading before late cautions and restarts shook up the running order.
Larson is known to win in bunches. In 2021 he won 10 races, the first time any driver had done so since Jimmie Johnson in 2007. Last year was a down season with “only” three wins, but he seems fully focused and motivated again. That’s not good news for the rest of the field.
Larson’s biggest challenger might be his teammate William Byron, the driver who beat him in those aforementioned Las Vegas and Phoenix races. Byron is the only other driver to have multiple wins this season, and also ranks second in laps led with 385, only behind Larson’s 468.
Byron has only three top tens in nine races and an average finish of 17.6. But those numbers are misleading and mostly indicative of bad luck. Byron leads the series in average running position, which at 8.9 is nearly eight spots better than his average finish. This will almost certainly even out.
The third driver may seem like an unconventional pick, but watch out for Tyler Reddick. After starting slow, Reddick has top-five finishes in four of the past six races and was dominant in his win at Circuit of the Americas.
Reddick will likely only get better throughout the year as he’s still adjusting to his first season with 23XI Racing. And, like Byron, the underlying numbers are a mark in his favor. His +145 on-track pass differential leads the series, meaning he’s often had to overcome adverse track position.
Right now, those three drivers have a clear edge on the rest of the field. But there’s a lot of season to go and plenty of other names who could join the elite group by the end of it — namely, Chase Elliott has just returned from a broken leg and is sure to be back in the mix sooner rather than later.