It feels like a down year for the SEC.
Yes, the conference claims the best team in the nation, as well as the defending national champions. The No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks (26-0, 13-0) are absolutely excellent, while the upside of the No. 13 LSU Lady Tigers (23-4, 10-3) makes them a threat to take down any team. On Thursday, the Gamecocks wrapped up at least a share of the regular season SEC championship, with head coach Dawn Staley also earning her 600th career win.
Currently, no other SEC is ranked in the top 25, with Mississippi State receiving two votes and Tennessee a single vote in the most recent AP Poll. In the preseason, both the Bulldogs and Lady Vols were ranked, coming in at No. 25 and No. 11, respectively. Ole Miss also began the season ranked No. 12.
Yet, ESPN’s latest Bracketology projection forecasts nine SEC teams making the NCAA Tournament, tied with the ACC for the most from a single conference. However, three of those teams—Texas A&M, Auburn and Vanderbilt—are among the last four to earn a spot in the 68-team field. If those squads fail to finish strong, the SEC would sink to six tourney teams.
So, is the SEC up, down or somewhere in between?
The quality of the conference will be determined by how the SEC’s unranked-but-almost-assuredly-tourney-bound teams perform down the stretch of the season, in the SEC Tournament and, ultimately, in the Big Dance. Let’s take a closer look at those four squads.
Tennessee Lady Vols (16-9, 9-4)
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Tennessee played a difficult non-conference schedule—and paid the price. Before SEC play began, the Lady Vols had suffered five losses and slid out of the top 25. But, Tennessee has shown an impressive resiliency. The Lady Vols currently are projected to be a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament; can they earn a more advantageous tourney entry?
Best win: 75-64 at Mississippi State (Jan. 18)
Down 23-12 after the first quarter, Tennessee appeared poised to follow a bad loss at Texas A&M (see below) with a stumble in Starkville to Mississippi State. But, the Lady Vols found a higher level of defensive focus, holding the Bulldogs to 14 points in the second quarter and just five points in third. From there, Tennessee effectively fended off Mississippi State’s comeback attempts. Fifth-year wing Rickea Jackson led the Lady Vols against her former team, scoring 19 points and grabbing seven boards. For the season, Jackon has been the engine for Tennessee, scoring a team-high 18.9 points per game. And when Jackson has it going, making tough midrange shots look effortless, the Lady Vols can hang with almost any opponent.
Worst lost: 71-56 at Texas A&M (Jan. 14)
Winning on the road in the SEC is hard, but the Lady Vols made it harder on themselves, with poor shotmaking and subpar rebounding. The 56 points scored, which included an eight-point second quarter, tied for Tennessee’s second-lowest total of the season. It also was an off game for Jackson, who scored a season-low 10 points on a 5-for-15 performance from the field. Sara Puckett led the Lady Vols in scoring with a mere 12 points.
Remaining schedule: vs. LSU (Feb. 25, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN); vs. Texas A&M (Feb. 29, 7 p.m. ET, SEC Network); at South Carolina (Mar. 3, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Lady Vols’ final stretch of the season is intense. Expect Tennessee to give LSU a tough time, but, similar to their recent loss to South Carolina, it’s hard to imagine the Lady Vols holding off the Lady Tigers for four quarters. Winning in Columbia, with South Carolina likely motivated to sew up an undefeated regular season, is even more improbable. With respectable losses to LSU and South Carolina, Tennessee could cement themselves as the SEC’s third-best team. But, losses are losses, making it unlikely that the Lady Vols finish third in the conference standings.
Ole Miss Rebels (19-7, 9-4)
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Ole Miss entered the season with ambitions of establishing themselves in the conference’s top tier of teams. The Rebels haven’t quite risen to that level, but they have a good chance of finishing the regular season in third place in SEC. On Thursday, Ole Miss took care of business against Georgia, 73-51. Senior Marquesha Davis led the Rebels with 20 points, five boards, four assists and four steals.
Best win: 75-71 vs. Mississippi State (Feb. 18)
Rivalry wins are always the best. The Rebels scored the last six points of regulation to force overtime, with senior forward and current SEC Co-Player of the Week Madison Scott, who scored a game-high 20 points, accounting for four of those points. In overtime, an and-1 layup and free throw from senior forward Tyia Singleton gave Ole Miss an advantage they wouldn’t relinquish. An average shooting team that does not rely on the 3, the Rebels are at the best when they are doing all the little things, which, when combined, can lead to big wins.
Worst lost: 69-57 at Mississippi State (Jan. 14)
Rivalry losses are always the worst. On the surface, there’s nothing too alarming about losing to a solid MSU team on their home court. But, up by two points entering the fourth quarter, the Rebels lost the final frame 20-6. The six points scored encapsulates Ole Miss’ biggest weakness: scoring can be a struggle.
Remaining schedule: at Missouri (Feb. 26, 7 p.m. ET, SEC Network); at Kentucky (Feb. 29, 7 p.m. ET); vs. Arkansas (Mar. 3, 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
There’s no excuse for Ole Miss not finishing the season on a six-game winning streak. A pair of late season road games at Missouri and Kentucky, however, profile as potentially tricky trap games. And a loss to the Tigers or Wildcats instantly would become the Rebels’ worst loss of the season. With no stumbles, the Rebels could rise above their current No. 8 seed projection in the NCAA Tournament.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-8, 7-6)
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After losing two-straight games, Mississippi State had the perfect opportunity for a “get-right” win on Thursday night: a home game against a Kentucky team with only three conference wins. Instead, the Bulldogs not only suffered a third loss in a row, but also their worst loss of the season.
Best win: 77-73 vs. LSU (Jan. 29)
Yes, the Bulldogs benefitted from some outlier shooting, with their third-best overall (52.6 percent) and second-best 3-point (52.9 percent) performances of the season. Nevertheless, taking down a LSU team that was coming off the loss is quite the achievement. The Bulldogs were boosted by their bench, with 12 points, six steals and five assists from freshman guard Mjracle Sheppard and 19 points from senior guard Darrione Rogers.
Senior guard Jerkaila Jordan, MSU’s leading scorer and a top 10 scorer in the SEC, led the team with 24 points, including a 3-for-3 effort from 3. Mississippi State also overcame a rough performance from Jessika Carter, as the grad center who makes better than 53 percent of her field goal attempts, the third highest mark in the SEC, was just 1-for-6 from the field.
Worst lost: 78-68 vs. Kentucky (Feb. 22)
After scoring 29 points in the third quarter, the Bulldogs entered the final period with a nine-point advantage, appearing poised to cruise to a relatively comfortable win. Then, it all fell apart. MSU managed a measly five points in the fourth quarter, with the Bulldogs’ last points coming with just over six minutes remaining. At that point, Mississippi State led by nine points. That means the Bulldogs allowed the Wildcats to finish the game on a 19-0 run. Woof.
Remaining schedule: at Alabama (Feb. 25, 5 p.m. ET, SEC Network); at Auburn (Feb. 29, 8 p.m. ET); vs. Missouri (Mar. 3, 3 p.m. ET)
It will not be easy for the Bulldogs to emerge from this rut. Sunday’s contest in Tuscaloosa is a tough one, and a game on the Plains against Auburn next week will be a challenge. However, to avoid falling below a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, their current projection, head coach Sam Purcell and his squad likely need to pick up two wins in the state of Alabama.
Alabama Crimson Tide (20-8, 7-6)
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The Crimson Tide survived their toughest test of the season on Thursday night—barely. South Carolina locked down Alabama, 72-44. The Tide shot a season-worst from the field (22.1 percent) and from 3 (15.8 percent) as they staggered to a season-low 44 points. It was a particularly difficult evening for senior guard Sarah Ashlee Barker, with Bama’s leading scorer held to four points on 2-for-11 shooting.
Best win: 72-56 vs. Tennessee (Feb. 8)
Accounting for volume and efficiency, Alabama is the SEC team that most effectively weaponizes the 3-pointer, taking over 600 triples and making almost 35 percent of them. However, Bama did not bury the Lady Vols with 3-balls. Instead, it was an all-round performance. On an off night for Barker, senior guard Aaliyah Nye stepped up with a season-high tying 23 points.
Worst lost: 77-59 vs. Arkansas (Jan. 14)
The home loss to Arkansas kicked off a three-game losing streak for Alabama. The Tide allowed the Hogs’ Samara Spencer to go off for a season-high 31 points. They also were whipped on the boards, with Arkansas grabbing 52 rebounds to Alabama’s 35. The Razorbacks’ 21 offensive boards, in particular, indicate that they played with an energy and aggression that the Tide failed to match.
Remaining schedule: vs. Mississippi State (Feb. 25, 5 p.m. ET, SEC Network); vs. Florida (Feb. 29, 7 p.m. ET); at Texas A&M (Mar. 3, 3 p.m. ET)
Winning out is a reasonable goal for the Tide that would appropriately capture their improvement from last season, when Alabama finished 20-11 overall and 9-7 in the SEC. With three-straight wins, the Tide will finish 10-6 in the SEC and reach 23 victories before postseason play begins. They’d also put themselves in position to rise above their current NCAA Tournament projection, which is a No. 9 seed.