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Although the 2021 NFL season is roughly 5 months from kicking off, it is by no means too early to invest about win totals. And to gamble on them.
So far as the latter is worried, Caesars William Hill launched its preliminary projected win totals for every staff for the upcoming season. There’s quite a bit that can nonetheless occur between from time to time, with the NFL draft later this month being a serious occasion to return. However NFL over/unders are open for wagering beginning Friday, so we requested our 32 NFL Nation writers to handicap the win totals of the groups they cowl primarily based on the preliminary Caesars William Hill numbers listed under.
There’s loads of optimism from our reporters in regards to the fortunes of the groups they cowl, just a little pessimism and the occasional pragmatic push right here and there. Whether or not it is optimism about operating it again with a successful staff (just like the Tremendous Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers), giddiness about offseason acquisitions (New England Patriots) or adopting a wait-and-see method for rebuilding conditions (Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets), NFL Nation is right here to offer keen bettors with early recommendation.
Bounce to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Over/below: 10.5
Prediction: Over
Buffalo has reached double-digit wins in every of its previous two seasons and, barring harm, ought to function one of many league’s most explosive offenses for the second yr in a row. An additional residence sport helps a Payments staff that gained 9 video games at its personal stadium final season, and if the protection returns to form, one other journey to the AFC Championship Sport needs to be in retailer. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Over/below: 9
Prediction: Over, barely
I count on the Dolphins to match their 10-win whole from 2020 contemplating they’ve an additional sport to do it. The Dolphins performed extra rookies than some other staff in 2020, together with QB Tua Tagovailoa and three beginning offensive linemen, so pure growth and the signing of free-agent receiver Will Fuller V ought to make that group higher. The power of their staff, a No. 5-ranked protection, largely stays intact and the Dolphins return 19 of 22 whole starters to couple with two upcoming first-round picks. — Cameron Wolfe
Over/below: 9
Prediction: Over
Invoice Belichick and his teaching workers squeezed seven wins out of a 2020 staff with lesser expertise. Now that the Patriots have infused the roster with extra expertise attributable to a free-agency blitz that noticed them improve at tight finish (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith), pass-rusher (Matthew Judon) and a number of other different positions — together with a 17-game schedule — the opportunity of 10 wins appears life like. — Mike Reiss
Over/below: 6
Prediction: Below
New teaching workers, new quarterback (a rookie). That screams “transition yr” for the Jets. They can not be worse than final season (2-14), however it will likely be tough to prime six wins. Their new QB, presumably BYU’s Zach Wilson, will expertise rising pains, as most rookies do. There’s not sufficient expertise round him to offset that. This season will probably be all about solidifying the quarterback place and establishing Robert Saleh’s program. The rebuilding continues. — Wealthy Cimini
AFC NORTH
Over/below: 11
Prediction: Push
It is a robust name as a result of Lamar Jackson has gained an NFL-best 81% of his video games since taking on as Baltimore’s starter halfway via the 2018 season and the Ravens return 19 starters from a staff that gained 11 video games final season. However after benefiting from the league’s best schedule in 2020, the Ravens face the NFL’s second-toughest schedule this yr (.559). With Jackson and a robust protection, projecting 10 or 11 wins is life like. It is tough to foretell greater than 11 when Baltimore has its most tough schedule of the John Harbaugh period, at the least by opponent file. Six of the Ravens’ 9 residence video games are towards groups that reached the playoffs final season. — Jamison Hensley
Over/below: 6.5
Prediction: Over
The Bengals are in Yr Three of a deep rebuilding challenge below head coach Zac Taylor. If QB Joe Burrow is offered Week 1, Cincinnati needs to be in rivalry to surpass the .500 mark. The Bengals ought to give Burrow at the least one large offensive piece within the draft and have spent some huge cash on defensive upgrades. All of these issues ought to produce at the least seven wins. Something lower than that can put Taylor and the entrance workplace below fireplace. — Ben Child
1:36
Stephen A. Smith nonetheless is not satisfied that Cleveland has a staff that may be thought-about a Tremendous Bowl favourite.
Over/below: 10
Prediction: Over
The Browns gained 11 video games final yr regardless of a brand new teaching workers, a number of key gamers lacking video games attributable to COVID-19 and dropping wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a season-ending knee harm in October. The Browns lastly have continuity on offense round QB Baker Mayfield, whereas GM Andrew Berry has bolstered their defensive talent this offseason, including security John Johnson III and defensive finish Jadeveon Clowney. Sure, the AFC North is hard. However so are these Browns. — Jake Trotter
Over/below: 9
Prediction: Below
Sure, this goes towards historical past. Mike Tomlin has not had a dropping season in his 14 seasons, tying Marty Schottenheimer for the longest such streak to begin an NFL head-coaching profession. However the Steelers crumbled down the stretch final season, dropping 5 of their final six video games, together with a playoff loss to the Browns. Now, Pittsburgh should play the NFL’s hardest schedule with a 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger enjoying behind a suspect offensive line. It seems like Pittsburgh is nearing a rebuilding section. — Jamison Hensley
AFC SOUTH
Over/below: 5
Prediction: Below
The Texans gained fewer video games in 2020 with quarterback Deshaun Watson enjoying the perfect soccer of his NFL profession. Whereas there was quite a lot of turnover on the roster, the staff does not appear to have actually improved this offseason. Houston is not positive what Watson’s standing will probably be for the 2021 season as a result of he’s currently facing 22 civil lawsuits alleging harassment and sexual assault and the Texans seemingly count on Tyrod Taylor to begin at quarterback in September. — Sarah Barshop
Over/below: 10
Prediction: Push
This is not a sign that the 2021 roster — minus this yr’s draft picks — will probably be worse than final yr’s, which completed 11-5 and reached the playoffs. It is extra that the Colts’ schedule will probably be more durable, having to face the NFC West together with the Tremendous Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Between these 5 video games and having to additionally face the Ravens, Payments and Titans (twice), repeating final yr’s 11 wins may very well be tough, even with a further sport to take action. — Mike Wells
1:54
Louis Riddick says Trevor Lawrence must be totally dedicated to win if he needs to be one of many NFL’s finest quarterbacks.
Over/below: 6
Prediction: Below
With all the joy surrounding the rent of City Meyer and the anticipated number of Trevor Lawrence, folks appear to neglect that the Jaguars’ protection gave up essentially the most yards and factors in franchise historical past in 2020. They did deal with that aspect of the ball in free company with CB Shaquill Griffin, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Roy Robertson-Harris and DE Jihad Ward. They’re going to add extra gamers within the draft, however anticipating that to be sufficient to maneuver the Jaguars into the center of the league defensively is a attain. Which locations quite a lot of strain on the rookie QB towards a schedule that features journeys to Seattle, the Los Angeles Rams and New England. — Mike DiRocco
Over/below: 9.5
Prediction: Over
The Titans have discovered a approach to win at the least 9 video games in every of the previous 4 seasons, successful 11 video games final yr regardless of a porous protection that gave up an NFL-worst 51.7% third-down conversion fee and generated solely 19 sacks. Titans GM Jon Robinson added Denico Autry and Bud Dupree to assist repair that drawback. The offense may not maintain tempo with the 2020 unit that scored 30 factors per sport, however any group that features Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannehill is greater than sufficient to win 10 video games and compete for an additional AFC South division title. — Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Over/below quantity: 7.5
Prediction: Over
However over may definitely imply the primary Eight-9 end in franchise historical past, leading to a sixth consecutive playoff miss, if the Broncos aren’t extra of a risk to attain greater than 16 factors a sport. They scored 16 or fewer factors six instances final season, 20 or fewer 11 instances. Until there’s blockbuster in retailer on draft weekend, the Broncos are banking on quarterback Drew Lock being a lot better in 2021. The return of vast receiver Courtland Sutton from final yr’s ACL surgical procedure will assist Lock’s trigger and defensive enhancements in free company will give the Broncos sufficient pop to get again within the playoff dialog. — Jeff Legwold
Over/below: 12
Prediction: Push
I would take the below if the road was at 12.5 as a result of it does not determine to be straightforward. However the Chiefs have gained 12 video games in every of the previous three seasons and 4 of the previous 5 and there is no motive to consider that the Chiefs will go below this season with a further regular-season sport on the schedule. The Chiefs have had a successful streak of at the least 5 video games in every of Andy Reid’s eight seasons. If they will get one other one, they will should be solely barely over .500 the remainder of the best way to get to 12 wins. — Adam Teicher
Over/below: Eight
Prediction: Over
Alert the Las Vegas sportsbooks. If for no different motive than the Raiders have improved from 4 wins in Jon Gruden’s return to the sidelines in 2018 to seven wins in 2019 to eight final season. So, if 1 plus 1 nonetheless equals 2, an enchancment is imminent, no? Really, the larger query is whether or not the Raiders collapse on the finish once more, as they did in dropping 5 of six to finish the 2019 season and 5 of seven final yr. — Paul Gutierrez
Over/below: 9
Prediction: Over
The Chargers have the reigning Rookie of the Yr in quarterback Justin Herbert and have shored up safety on the offensive line, signing top-of-the-line facilities within the league in All-Professional Corey Linsley. They signed TE Jared Cook to switch Hunter Henry, and have Keenan Allen at WR and Austin Ekeler wholesome at RB. Defensively, the Chargers get Derwin James again and a wholesome Joey Bosa. The Chargers may very well be the perfect within the West. — Shelley Smith
NFC EAST
Over/below: 9.5
Prediction: Below, barely
And by barely, go together with 9. As a lot as optimism will reign with the returns to well being of Dak Prescott, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La’el Collins and Blake Jarwin, the Cowboys’ protection has quite a bit to show with a brand new coordinator in Dan Quinn. Possibly they may have all the solutions, however the Cowboys’ nondivision schedule appears to be tough. They play at Kansas Metropolis, at Tampa Bay, at New England and at New Orleans. It’s potential they lose all of these video games, which places a premium on the remainder of the schedule to succeed in greater than 9.5 wins. In fact, 9 wins may nonetheless win the NFC East. — Todd Archer
Over/below: 7
Prediction: Over
The Giants gained six video games final season with an offense that scored the second-fewest factors per sport (17.5) within the NFL. They’re principally including Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay in a season the place there’ll now be 17 video games. Issues must go actually unsuitable for Daniel Jones & Co. to not be considerably higher on that aspect of the ball this yr. It is Jones’ third season, his second yr in Jason Garrett’s offense and there was a big enhance in playmakers. It is potential for the Giants to have a dropping file and nonetheless go over their win whole. — Jordan Raanan
Over/below: 7
Prediction: Over
It has been doom and gloom in Philadelphia following the Eagles’ Four-11-1 marketing campaign in 2020, and rightfully so. Nonetheless, there’s motive to consider they are often extra aggressive this season. Projected starter Jalen Hurts is bound to offer a better degree of play than the departed Carson Wentz did in 2020 and will probably be working behind an offensive line that’s formidable when wholesome. The identical could be stated for the defensive entrance, which will probably be backed by Anthony Harris and Darius Slay within the secondary. The Eagles will profit from a last-place schedule sufficient to climb out of the NFC East basement and hit the Eight-to-9-win mark. — Tim McManus
Over/below: Eight
Prediction: Over, barely
Washington benefited from a foul division final yr and, on paper, has a more durable schedule — its 17th sport is at Buffalo, certainly one of six playoff groups on the docket. However Washington was a younger staff that went via 4 beginning quarterbacks final season. Its coach, Ron Rivera, battled most cancers through the season. But it completed sturdy. It improved at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick, added a playmaker in receiver Curtis Samuel and upgraded at nook with William Jackson III. The protection was fourth in factors allowed and second in yards in 2020. The staff is way from a completed product and a yr away from dreaming of a deep run however can win 9 or 10 video games. — John Keim
NFC NORTH
Over/below: 7.5
Prediction: Below
It is onerous to examine eight wins or extra due to the uncertainty on offense. Andy Dalton had run in Cincinnati, however his finest days could be in the rearview mirror. Defensively, the Bears nonetheless boast Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Roquan Smith, however dropping cornerback Kyle Fuller (cap casualty) opens a large gap within the secondary. The Bears are unlikely to backside out, however it will likely be difficult to succeed in final yr’s win whole, even with an additional regular-season sport. — Jeff Dickerson
Over/below: 5
Prediction: Over
Out with the outdated. In with the brand new. Detroit Lions soccer is getting into a distinct period and, fairly frankly, we do not know what that appears like. After a dozen seasons in Motown, the franchise’s all-time passing chief, Matthew Stafford, has been changed with former Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff. Below new management, headed by basic supervisor Brad Holmes together with rookie head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will come out scorching as they’re seeking to show themselves. I see them successful six video games, barely greater than what the sports activities betting world says. — Eric Woodyard
Over/below: 11
Prediction: Over
Certain, the record of opponents appears brutally tough (Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Seahawks and Rams amongst them), however the Packers seem like they’re operating it again for another shot at a Tremendous Bowl with largely the identical staff that went 13-Three final yr and reached the NFC title sport for the second straight season. The caveat right here is that the entire thing doesn’t go to pieces between Aaron Rodgers and the group earlier than the tip of the yr. — Rob Demovsky
Over/below: Eight.5
Prediction: Over, however simply barely
The Vikings utilized all their assets on retooling the protection in free company and will fare much better towards the run with the addition of Dalvin Tomlinson and return of Michael Pierce, plus they lastly have depth and expertise within the secondary by including Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods and Mackensie Alexander. However Minnesota nonetheless has a handful of points to deal with on the offensive line. If the Vikings do not repair their points in go safety, this offense will not be as explosive because it was a yr in the past, which may value them within the win column. — Courtney Cronin
NFC SOUTH
Over/below: 7
Prediction: Push
Vegas is normally spot-on with these numbers and the Falcons have gained seven video games or fewer in every of the previous three seasons. Their 2020 season was a little bit of an outlier at Four-12 after 7-9 seasons in 2018 and 2019. If — and this can be a large if — the staff’s stars can keep wholesome, then the Falcons may attain Eight or 9 wins. But when anybody of significance had been to overlook a number of weeks, significantly on protection, this goes from over to at-the-line or below actual fast. Apart from receiver and defensive position, Atlanta does not have the depth to deal with accidents to starters, although the upcoming draft may assist. — Michael Rothstein
1:31
Tedy Bruschi and Kimberley A. Martin focus on whether or not the Falcons will draft a QB or commerce again for extra picks.
Over/below: 7.5
Prediction: Over
It is going to be shut, however keep in mind this staff went 5-11 final season, dropping eight video games the place it had an opportunity to win or tie on the ultimate possession, together with a 33-31 setback at Kansas Metropolis. The Panthers had been aggressive of their first yr below coach Matt Rhule, and that was with out operating again Christian McCaffrey for 13 video games. With a wholesome McCaffrey and upgrades to the offensive line and protection, this staff has an opportunity to win eight to 10 video games if new quarterback Sam Darnold can avoid the big mistakes that haunted him with the Jets. That is an enormous if, since Darnold’s profession file is 13-25. — David Newton
Over/below: 9.5
Prediction: Over
I would not guess with an excessive amount of confidence for the reason that Saints are extra of an unknown commodity than normal following Drew Brees‘ retirement and the lack of another salary-cap casualties. However that is nonetheless one of many NFL’s most gifted rosters and might depend on its protection, run sport and offensive line when wanted. Keep in mind, this staff went 12-Four final season regardless of Brees struggling early, then lacking 4 video games with vital accidents later within the season. The Saints ought to want simply respectable play from Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill to return to the playoffs. — Mike Triplett
Over/below: 11.5
Prediction: Over
The Bucs reached 11 wins with none kind of offseason to assist Tom Brady acclimate to a totally new system. This yr, Brady is aware of the system they usually return all 22 starters on offense and protection from the Tremendous Bowl. I do not see the Bucs dropping twice to a Saints staff that does not have Drew Brees and their schedule could be very manageable, with their opponents ending a mixed 126-145-1 in 2020. — Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Over/below quantity: Eight
Prediction: Over, however not by a lot
The Cardinals have added the required items to win extra video games in 2021, however the query will at all times come down as to if or not they will really do it. They completed Eight-Eight final season, however with the additions of WR A.J. Green, RB James Conner, DE J.J. Watt and Ok Matt Prater, Arizona ought to win a sport or two extra. 9 wins appears seemingly, and 10 would not come as a shock. — Josh Weinfuss
Over/below quantity: 10.5
Prediction: Over, by just a bit
The Rams have revamped their offense by buying and selling for quarterback Matthew Stafford and signing receiver DeSean Jackson, plus return three-time NFL Defensive Participant of the Yr Aaron Donald and All-Professional cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the NFL’s top-ranked protection. Regardless of a grueling division schedule, the Rams’ nondivision opponents make a 10.5-win-plus season potential with a schedule that features a number of groups which might be anticipated to have less-than-stellar showings, together with Detroit, Jacksonville, the New York Giants and Houston. — Lindsey Thiry
Over/below quantity: 10
Prediction: Over, barely
The 49ers consider final season was an injury-ravaged aberration and 2019 was nearer to who they are surely when wholesome. You would be hard-pressed to discover a staff that had extra harm points than San Francisco did final season, which suggests there’s motive to consider in at the least some regression to the imply in 2021. If that occurs, together with a last-place schedule, the 49ers ought to be capable of push again into the vary of 10 to 11 wins. — Nick Wagoner
1:26
Booger McFarland discusses how the turmoil between the Seahawks’ protection and their offense is perhaps affecting Seattle’s Tremendous Bowl probabilities.
Over/below quantity: 10
Prediction: Over
The Seahawks have averaged 10.33 wins per yr in 16-game schedules over the previous six seasons. Their worst season in that stretch was a 9-7 end in 2017, once they had no run sport and their protection was ravaged by accidents. Thus, 9 wins seems like a baseline for the Seahawks so long as they’ve Russell Wilson enjoying like a top-five quarterback. Assuming the Seahawks do not commerce him this yr — seemingly a protected guess at this level — Wilson plus a robust solid of weapons and a protection with a deep go rush ought to prime 10 wins in a 16-game season. The over appears even higher with a 17th sport. — Brady Henderson