The 12th-seeded Oregon State Beavers have a chance to make history in Indianapolis if they can get past the No. 2 seed and sixth-ranked Houston Cougars in the Elite Eight of the 2021 NCAA Tournament on Monday night. The Beavers (20-12) have been a revelation since winning the Pac-12 tournament after finishing sixth in the regular-season standings. They could become the lowest seed to make the Final Four. Missouri made the Elite Eight as a 12th seed in 2002 before bowing out to Oklahoma. Houston (27-3) won’t make it easy, boasting a ferocious defense that allows less than 58 points per game.
Tip-off from Lucas Oil Stadium is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on CBS. The Cougars are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Oregon State vs. Houston odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 129. Before locking in any Houston vs. Oregon State picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Houston vs. Oregon State in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Oregon State vs. Houston:
- Oregon State vs. Houston spread: Cougars -7.5
- Oregon State vs. Houston over-under: 129 points
- Oregon State vs. Houston money line: Beavers +285, Cougars -360
- OSU: Opponents make just 29.8 percent on 3-point tries, best in the Pac-12
- HOU: The Cougars have a plus-9.3 rebounding margin, while Oregon State is plus-1.1
Why Houston can cover
Houston is 20-9 against the spread this season, and the Cougars held Syracuse to a season-low 28 percent shooting. Houston leads the nation in that category this season, with opponents shooting 37 percent, and is second in the nation in scoring, allowing 57.6 points per contest. The Beavers score just 70 points per game (238th) and shoot 43.2 percent (226th). The Cougars have allowed more than 60 points just three times in their last 10 games, and they average more than 41 rebounds and eight steals. AAC All-Defensive Team honoree DeJon Jarreau spearheads the effort.
The Cougars are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 neutral-site games as favorites, and the defense does it with forward Justin Gorham pulling down rebounds and a guard-heavy lineup that bothers shooters. Gorham averages 8.6 points and 8.6 rebounds, while AAC co-Player of the Year Quentin Grimes scores a team-high 18 points and adds six boards. The Cougars are also efficient on offense, scoring more than 77 points and shooting better than 36 percent from 3-point range, led by Grimes at 41.3 percent.
Why Oregon State can cover
Oregon State is 16-5 ATS as an underdog (5-0 against top-25 teams), and senior guard Ethan Thompson has willed the team to this point. The All Pac-12 performer is averaging more than 20 points and seven rebounds in the NCAA Tournament 2021, and the Beavers are yielding an average just over 61 points in the three games. Thompson leads Oregon State in scoring (15.3) and assists (3.8) and also grabs 3.9 rebounds. He also has made a third of his 141 tries from 3-point range this season and is 25-of-26 from the free-throw line in the tournament.
The Beavers are 20-9-1 ATS overall this season, and the offense gets a lot of second chances thanks to forward Warith Alatishe. The junior led the Pac-12 and ranked 28th in offensive rebounds with 3.3 per game, and he averages 9.6 points and 8.7 boards overall. Sophomore guard Jarod Lucas scores 12.9 points per game and is the top outside shooting option, hitting almost 39 percent of his team-high 193 attempts. Senior guard Zach Reichle also plays a critical role in all areas, as he chips in 7.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists.
How to make Houston vs. Oregon State picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 139 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Oregon State vs. Houston? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.