A version of this article originally appeared on the Action Network. For more betting insights, check out ActionNetwork.com.
The Padres are feeling the blues here in the dog days of August, though a win to start their weekend series with the Angels has them feeling the slightest bit confident.
Not once during the cold streak has San Diego begun a series with a win, so perhaps this is something it can build upon.
Ryan Weathers will head to the hill for San Diego, hoping to right the ship, and he’ll be met by the surprising Jose Suarez. With the splits on their side, are the Angels an intriguing bet on Saturday? Let’s break this down below.
Padres Remembering How to Hit
The Padres picked things up in a big way on Friday, getting to Cooper Criswell, Packy Naughton and the rest of the Angels bullpen early for a 5-0 win. The Friars had a whopping 10 hits in the game, contradicting their .178 batting average over the last two weeks and league-worst 60 wRC+.
It was a reminder that yes, this team can hit, but just how long will this last?
San Diego will have to face a lefty on Friday, something it has dreaded all year long. It’s slashing just .239/.321/.383 against left-handers this year, ranking in the bottom six of the league in wRC+.
The only encouraging things would be the Padres’ 10% walk rate against lefties and their 22.4% strikeout rate, which would point to the fact that there are good at-bats happening there. The issue has been in the power department, where they have just a .144 ISO.
The problem here is that Weathers will be getting the ball, so the offense will need to work very hard for the win. The lefty has allowed six home runs in his last three starts, carrying a 13.17 ERA in August into this one. His 5.69 xERA would tend to back his poor numbers, as would his .408 xwOBA on contact. There is no doubt about these hits he’s allowing.
Angels Crushing Lefties This Season
It turns out that hitting lefties is kind of the Angels’ thing. They’re all the way up to sixth in wRC+ against southpaws, sporting a strong .743 OPS and slugging 57 home runs, good for fourth in the split.
Los Angeles has lost six of seven now, and hope on offense may be fading with a .288 wOBA in the last two weeks.
Facing a lefty should inspire some confidence, as should the fact that L.A. is a very contact-happy team, putting a bat on the ball on 77.1% of swings this year. Perhaps these swings will result in more productive balls in play against a pitcher whose exit velocity and barrel numbers are scary high.
The good news here is that Suarez will take the ball for the Angels.
Though he’s pitched to a 5.40 ERA in August, he’s been very effective this year, carrying a 3.65 xERA into this one with a very low 33% hard-hit rate. It’s worth noting he had to go against the Yankees, Jays, Rockies and A’s over the last month and a half — all teams that have been imposing at the plate.
Suarez’s pitch-to-contact approach should do him well here against a Padres team that has been unable to drive the ball in any capacity over the last month or so. The home runs simply haven’t been there, and there are some real holes in this lineup.
On the other end, Weathers is up against one of baseball’s premier offenses against left-handers.
The Angels’ propensity for the longball, coupled with Weathers’ issues with gopher balls, should allow L.A. to jump out in front early.
Pick: Angels First Five ML (-110)