We know where we are in the calendar, which makes these last four games so concerning.
The Phillies got clobbered 13-1 on Friday night in San Francisco. Typically, a loss like that is no big deal. Blowouts happen. But the Phillies also lost 13-7 on Monday in Arizona, when they blew a 7-0 lead, and 12-3 on Tuesday.
That’s three blowout losses in four games.
The Phillies have an 8.57 ERA in their last five.
“I think it’s just a bad week,” Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson said. “I really do.”
But it’s human nature for Phillies fans to look at the losses, look at the calendar, look back at the losses again, and wonder. Is it happening again? The Phillies have not played good baseball down the stretch in each of the past four seasons, when they had legitimate opportunities to make the postseason. They have a combined .405 winning percentage in September/October from 2018-21, which is 25th in baseball. They finished 16-33 (.327) in 2018, 9-16 (.360) in 2019, 9-17 (.346) in 2020 and 13-16 (.448) in 2021.
“It’s a different team, different group of guys, different manager — everything,” Bryce Harper said Friday. “We’ve got a long way to go. We’ve got to keep playing our game, keep doing our thing, and not every night’s going to be like that.”
If you are looking for reasons to believe this September might be different, there are a few:
First, this team is better and deeper than the previous four. They have a better pitching staff, they have a better offense, they have a better defense. (That said, they need Zack Wheeler and Seranthony Domínguez to come back soon and the rotation to start setting the tone again ASAP.)
Second, there is a different vibe in the clubhouse with Thomson in charge than Gabe Kapler (2018-19) and Joe Girardi (2020-21). Thomson brings more of a Charlie Manuel vibe. He keeps things loose, but he also knows when it is time to speak up.
The Phillies have had previous bad stretches under Thomson, albeit none of them have been anything like this. The Phillies haven’t allowed 40 runs in a four-game stretch since Sept. 25-29, 2016, when they allowed 41. That team lost 91 games.
Here is how the Phillies responded under previous bad stretches under Thomson:
• June 19-22: Lost three straight to the Nationals and Rangers. Won 10 of their next 15.
• July 10-13: Lost four straight to the Cardinals and Blue Jays. Swept the Marlins in Miami entering the All-Star break.
• July 22-24: Lost three straight to the Cubs coming out of the break. Won 16 of their next 21.
• Aug. 17-20: Lost three straight to the Reds and Mets. Won 7 of their next 8.
Third, there are six postseason teams, and the Phillies — as poorly as they have played this week — still entered Saturday holding a 3 1/2-game lead over the Brewers for the third and final NL Wild Card. The lead is essentially 4 1/2 games because the Phillies own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Milwaukee.
The Phillies can still end this road trip on a high note. They can win Saturday and Sunday, which would give them a 3-3 trip. They can do that, fly back to Philly and take care of business at Citizens Bank Park next week against the Marlins and Nationals.
They can change the narrative.
Until then, Phillies fans will wonder if September is happening all over again.