Round of 16
- Darlington: Kyle Larson
- Kansas: Martin Truex Jr.
- Bristol: Brad Keselowski
Eliminated: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Michael McDowell, Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano
Going mostly chalk with the eliminations here, but for one surprise in reigning champion Joey Logano. It’s less of a surprise if you’ve followed closely in 2023, though, as Logano has not performed up to his usual title-contending standards — in fact, Penske Racing on the whole seems to be off of its usual pace.
Logano would continue one of the more improbable streaks in NASCAR should he be eliminated, which is that ever since the implementation of playoff eliminations in 2014, Logano has qualified for the championship round in every even-numbered year but failed to do so in every odd-numbered year.
As for the winners, Kyle Larson is long overdue for a Darlington victory and Hendrick Motorsports always seems to turn it up a notch in the playoffs. Martin Truex, Jr. has been blindingly fast on intermediates this season, and Brad Keselowski seems like his first win as an owner-driver is right around the corner given his teammate Chris Buescher’s recent hot streak.
Round of 12
- Texas: Kyle Larson
- Talladega: Ryan Blaney
- Charlotte (Roval): Tyler Reddick
Eliminated: Chris Buescher, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, William Byron
Let’s get nuts. There’s always that one elimination that comes much earlier than expected and this year, it’s going to be William Byron. He has five wins, but hasn’t consistently shown contending speed elsewhere, and in a round that figures to be the most unpredictable of the playoffs given its schedule, he’s a prime candidate for a shocking exit.
Joining him will be two former champions in Harvick and Busch, as well as Buescher, who seems like he may be peaking just a bit too early. Larson once again will waste no time locking up his spot in the Round of 8, and Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick will avoid chaos at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval to survive and advance.
Round of 8
- Las Vegas: Tyler Reddick
- Homestead: Martin Truex Jr.
- Martinsville: Chase Elliott
Eliminated: Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain
The Round of 8 is usually when you can no longer hide by simply stringing together solid finishes to advance; you must compete for wins. That’ll be Tyler Reddick who does so by going back-to-back at Las Vegas, where the Toyotas are sure to be very fast. Then regular season champ Truex will come through at Homestead to punch his ticket to the Championship Four.
Then, just because why not, let’s have a non-playoff winner at Martinsville in Chase Elliott to spice things up. That leaves two spots available in the title round for non-winners, and Bell, Keselowski, Hamlin and Chastain — who won’t be able to pull off another “Hail Melon” as he did last year — will be left on the outside looking in. That leaves us with…
Championship Four
- Tyler Reddick
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
Larson and Blaney will be the two who point their way to Phoenix through the Round of 8, while Reddick and Truex will have more time to prepare given their locked-in status with their wins. Truex and Larson both have title pedigree, while Reddick and Blaney will be competing for their first championship.
Blaney has been very good at Phoenix over the years, but Penske’s inconsistent speed in 2023 may hurt him. Reddick and Truex will both be strong, but given that both drive Toyotas, they may be held back by sharing resources as opposed to the other two whose manufacturers will be putting all their eggs into one basket.
Then there’s Larson, who dominated the Phoenix race earlier this season and was leading on the final restart before William Byron passed him. Larson still has the same team around him as he did when he won the championship in 2021 and that experience will pay off as he’ll take home the victory, and more significantly, his second Cup title.
Who do you think will win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship? Your guess is as good as any, but one thing is for certain: these next 10 weeks are going to have no shortage of excitement.