The largest declaration of this younger baseball season: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now formally carries a really loud, very deadly and really highly effective bat.
Guerrero launched three dwelling runs and drove in seven runs within the Toronto Blue Jays‘ 9-5 victory over the Washington Nationals. Two have been off Max Scherzer, one in every of which was a laser-beam grand slam within the third inning that traveled 415 toes and had a 108-mph exit velocity.
That wasn’t even his hardest or farthest dwelling run of the evening. Within the fifth inning off Scherzer, Guerrero crushed one at 110.5 mph, 436 toes into the Florida evening.
Guerrero is hitting .360/.484/.693 with seven dwelling runs. At 22 years outdated, he turned the youngest participant ever with a three-homer, seven-RBI recreation. Within the growth period since 1961, solely Boog Powell and Corey Seager have been youthful once they hit three dwelling runs in a recreation. Vladimir Guerrero Sr., Vladdy’s Corridor of Fame father, by no means hit three dwelling runs in a recreation. Dad was impressed along with his son’s historic recreation:
Avg.360
7 HR
19 RBI
Proud dad! ❤️#VG27
— Vladimir Guerrero (@VladGuerrero27) April 28, 2021
What an evening for my boy. ?? All of the laborious work is paying off. ??#VG27
— Vladimir Guerrero (@VladGuerrero27) April 28, 2021
Senior can relate to 1 factor, nonetheless: He homered off Scherzer again in 2010, when he performed for the Rangers and Scherzer was pitching for the Tigers, and once more in 2011 when he was with the Orioles. The Guerreros be part of this listing of father-son duos to homer off a Cy Younger winner:
• Ken Griffey Sr. and Jr. homered off Dennis Eckersley, Bob Welch and Rick Sutcliffe
• Hal McRae and Brian McRae homered off Eckersley
• Jose Cruz Sr. and Jr. homered off Orel Hershiser
• Vern Regulation and Vance Regulation homered off Gaylord Perry
Greater than the enjoyable factoids, nonetheless, this appears like a press release recreation.
When the 2021 season started, all people had climbed aboard the hype prepare of younger superstars: Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto — with good motive. Guerrero wasn’t thought-about on their stage.
When Guerrero got here up in 2019 at age 20, he was good on the plate however not nice. In the meantime, Soto got here up in 2018 at 19, turned an instantaneous star after which tore it up within the World Collection in 2019. Acuna got here up in 2018, turned an instantaneous star after which hit 41 dwelling runs and stole 37 bases in 2019. Tatis got here up in 2019 and was a dynamo of energy and velocity.
Guerrero arrived within the majors as maybe essentially the most ballyhooed prospect since Griffey Jr. reached the majors as a teen in 1989. He was considered as the very best hitting prospect in a very long time. Scouts have been snug placing and 80-grade instrument on his bat. Within the minors, he hit for common, hit prodigious dwelling runs and did all of it whereas not often hanging out. He additionally confirmed a lot better plate self-discipline than his dad, who was one of many extra infamous free swingers within the historical past of the sport.
On this Tik Tok world of brief consideration spans, we anticipated instant greatness from Guerrero, forgetting that baseball is tough and that, regardless of the glowing debuts from Soto, Acuna and Tatis, most younger gamers want time to determine main league pitching.
In Guerrero’s case, his greatest concern in 2019 and 2020 wasn’t an absence of energy — it was getting to that energy. He hit too many balls on the bottom.
The perfect launch angle for line drives and residential runs is usually between 13 and 20 levels. As a rookie, Guerrero’s common launch angle was 6.7 levels. In 2020, it fell to four.6 levels. So though his hard-hit price ranked within the 93d percentile in 2020, he hit .262/.329/.462 with 9 dwelling runs in 60 video games. Higher than a league-average hitter, however not close to the numbers the opposite three younger sluggers put up.
Guerrero additionally realized he wanted to shed some pounds. He employed a private coach within the offseason and got here to camp 42 kilos lighter.
“In the future, I awakened from mattress, appeared within the mirror and mentioned, ‘That is it,'” Guerrero mentioned on a current Zoom name. He labored on lifting the ball, and his common launch angle is as much as 10.6 levels. He is extra athletic and agile within the subject and on the plate. His high dash velocity final yr was approach down on the 17th percentile. It is on the 45th percentile this yr. A lighter Vladdy is a greater Vladdy.
One factor I had puzzled about heading into the season was whether or not the evaluators had merely overrated Guerrero’s capability to hit elite velocity. Possibly the bat velocity wasn’t fairly what everybody believed. Verify his numbers in opposition to pitches of 95-plus mph:
2019: .184/.380/.368, 21.6% swing-and-miss price
2020: .192/.222/.231, 20.9% swing and miss price
(MLB common in 2019-2020 on 95-plus pitches: .247/.333/.415)
And to this point in 2021 for Guerrero:
.400/.600/.727, 13.zero% swing and miss price (because the MLB common has dipped to .212)
The third homer he hit on Tuesday got here off a 96.7-mph fastball from Kyle Finnegan, the quickest pitch he is hit for a house run in his profession. It is a small pattern dimension, simply 15 plate appearances and 11 at-bats, however the swing-and-miss price is down, a very good signal that the development in opposition to fastballs can maintain.
The opposite vital enchancment he is made is along with his plate self-discipline. His chase price is down from 24.6% final yr to 18.eight%, and on this age of strikeouts, he has extra walks than Okay’s. And be mindful he is largely finished this with out a lot assist in the lineup to this point. George Springer has but to play. Teoscar Hernandez hasn’t performed since April eight. Bo Bichette is hitting .241 with a .295 OBP and Cavan Biggio is hitting .210 (after a three-hit evening on Tuesday).
That is the Vladimir Guerrero scouts projected again in 2018 when he hit .381 within the minors: Among the best hitters within the recreation. Possibly even an MVP candidate. Make room on that prepare.