JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The Jacksonville Jaguars are slightly greater than every week away from having the franchise quarterback they have been looking for for 20 years.
Trevor Lawrence is the perfect quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck (and perhaps Peyton Manning), the fourth-highest-rated quarterback prospect ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. has ever graded and a man who misplaced simply 4 video games as a starter since his freshman 12 months of highschool.
He is so good that he prompted Gil Brandt, who drafted 9 future Corridor of Famers in 29 seasons because the Dallas Cowboys‘ vp of participant personnel, to explain him this fashion: “Trevor Lawrence is [John] Elway athlete [and] Manning accuracy. So I feel you are getting the perfect of each of them.” A franchise that hasn’t accomplished a lot proper since having the NFL’s finest report in 1999 and has misplaced 10 or extra video games in 9 of the previous 10 seasons is anticipated to take Lawrence with the No. 1 choose in subsequent week’s draft (April 29-Might 1, ESPN/ESPN App). Jaguars followers — in addition to these contained in the group, particularly in ticketing — are understandably ecstatic and hoping Lawrence is the important thing to the franchise lastly having some sustained success and turning into an annual playoff contender.
However a little bit of warning to mood the over-the-top expectations: Drafting a quarterback with the primary total choose isn’t any assure of a future Tremendous Bowl look. Or perhaps a playoff look. And, in some instances, not even a season with a successful report.
What does historical past say?
Eight of the 25 quarterbacks taken first total for the reason that AFL/NFL merger in 1970 have reached a Tremendous Bowl with the crew that drafted them, however solely three gained a championship: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers), Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) and Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Three others — Jim Plunkett (Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders), John Elway (Denver Broncos) and Eli Manning (New York Giants) — gained Tremendous Bowls with subsequent groups, with Elway and Manning being traded shortly after they had been drafted.
Eli Manning, who was drafted by the San Diego Chargers in 2004, is the final quarterback taken first total to win a Tremendous Bowl (2007 and 2011 seasons). Solely two of the 11 quarterbacks taken first total since Eli Manning have reached a Tremendous Bowl — Cam Newton, with the Carolina Panthers, and Jared Goff, with the Los Angeles Rams, misplaced the sport. 5 of the 11 have not even made the playoffs. Bradshaw (4) and Aikman (three) are the one such quarterbacks to win a number of Tremendous Bowls with the groups that drafted them. Eli Manning gained two with the Giants, Elway gained two with the Broncos and Plunkett gained two with the Raiders. By some means — perhaps due to Tom Brady’s ridiculous seven rings (and counting?) — Tremendous Bowl victories have turn into one of many defining quarterback stats. That is likely to be slightly unfair as a result of even these a number of Tremendous Bowl winners had loads of assist, whether or not it was Corridor of Fame receivers or operating backs, top-10 defenses or a number of All-Professionals and Professional Bowlers.
• Bradshaw performed with 4 different Corridor of Famers on offense (middle Mike Webster, operating again Franco Harris and large receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth) along with the Metal Curtain protection that included 4 extra Corridor of Famers.
• Aikman performed with large receiver Michael Irvin and operating again Emmitt Smith, each Corridor of Famers, and Smith is the NFL’s all-time main rusher. Plus, the Cowboys completed within the high 10 in scoring protection and complete protection in every of the three years they gained the Tremendous Bowl.
• Elway had three different Corridor of Famers on offense: operating again Terrell Davis, tight finish Shannon Sharpe and offensive sort out Gary Zimmerman. Elway’s two Tremendous Bowl-winning groups additionally completed 11th or higher in scoring protection and complete protection.
• Peyton Manning’s protection ranked within the 20s in scoring and complete protection the 12 months he gained the Tremendous Bowl with Indianapolis, however operating again Edgerrin James and large receiver Marvin Harrison went on to the Corridor of Fame.
• Eli Manning did not have a Corridor of Famer alongside him on offense nor did he have a statistically stout protection, however he did get assist from two unimaginable late-game throws and catches in addition to a move rush that harassed Tom Brady in each Tremendous Bowl victories.
• Plunkett gained his Tremendous Bowls along with his third crew, the Raiders, after failing to take action with the Patriots (who drafted him in 1971) and the 49ers. These Raiders championship groups had loads of star energy. Offensively, that they had 4 Corridor of Famers: operating again Marcus Allen, offensive sort out Artwork Shell, tight finish Dave Casper and guard Gene Upshaw. They usually boasted three extra on protection: defensive finish Howie Lengthy, cornerback Mike Haynes and defensive finish Ted Hendricks.
Teaching cannot be ignored, both. Here is the listing of head coaches for the six quarterbacks taken first total who did win Tremendous Bowls: Chuck Noll (Steelers), Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer (Cowboys), Tom Coughlin (Giants), Mike Shanahan (Broncos), Tony Dungy (Colts) and Tom Flores (Raiders). Noll, Johnson and Dungy are within the Corridor of Fame. Flores will likely be inducted this summer season.
City Meyer hasn’t coached a down within the NFL, however he is top-of-the-line coaches in faculty soccer historical past, successful two nationwide titles at Florida and one at Ohio State and going a mixed 148-24 with 5 convention titles at these faculties. That might mitigate among the strain on Lawrence.
“Clearly, anytime you are the primary choose total you are going to really feel a few of that weight, too,” ESPN faculty soccer analyst Kirk Herbstreit mentioned. “However so far as that franchise needing to go in a distinct course, I feel the timing for him is nice, since you’ve acquired a high-profile, first-year head coach that has many individuals each week dissecting his each transfer as a lot because the quarterback.
“Like, if that had been a Doug Marrone, all the things’s going to be on Trevor Lawrence as a result of he [Marrone] has been there for various years.”
Jags are on the clock
The place does that go away the Jaguars and Lawrence after eight:30 p.m. ET on April 29?
That is when the true work begins. Throughout the subsequent few seasons, the Jaguars might want to construct the roster with a number of gamers who go on to turn into Professional Bowlers or All-Professionals (and perhaps even Corridor of Famers). Even when Lawrence does flip into the Elway-Manning combo as Brandt believes, he’ll want some assist. ESPN’s Mike Clay has the Jags’ roster grading out 31st out of 32 NFL groups coming into the draft.
The Jaguars have 4 gamers who’ve made one Professional Bowl every on the roster (defensive finish Josh Allen, large receiver DJ Chark Jr., cornerback Shaquill Griffin and linebacker Joe Schobert), however solely Allen and Chark did it with the Jaguars. Returner Jamal Agnew is an All-Professional.
Although the sport’s biggest quarterbacks had assist, they had been the important thing to successful these Tremendous Bowls. That places immense strain and expectations on Lawrence, because it has each quarterback taken first total. However perhaps it is slightly extra unfair in Jacksonville, as a result of it looks like Lawrence is being counted on to basically save the franchise. The Jaguars all the time appear to be thought-about a relocation threat, and proprietor Shad Khan is frequently in search of new native income streams, which included an annual dwelling sport in London from 2013 to ’19. That contract with the league expired after final season — when the Jaguars had been going to play two video games there, which did not occur due to the pandemic — and the crew wish to renew.
Sustained success and contending for a championship will surely generate extra native income. Having Lawrence turn into the league’s subsequent nice younger QB could be one of many keys to that.
“Each participant [taken atop the draft], it is like you have to win three or 4 Tremendous Bowls to account for what it’s,” mentioned former Tampa Bay basic supervisor Mark Dominik. “If he will get within the postseason, he is doing his job. However Trevor’s a uncommon man. In case you discuss to any participant at Clemson the final three years, he is been constantly praised via the years. I feel it is a chance for him to go to a crew that is slightly extra loaded than individuals understand and has an opportunity to make an influence offensively.” Excessive expectations are nothing new for Lawrence. He took over because the starter as a freshman and went on to win two state titles at Cartersville (Georgia) Excessive Faculty, was the nation’s No. 1 recruit and adopted Deshaun Watson at Clemson.
“I do not assume there’s something that he’ll see in Jacksonville that is going to make him really feel weight that he has not already felt and, to be sincere with you, [it] is what he is aware of,” Herbstreit mentioned. “He is identified that weight to a various diploma since he is been in center faculty. I do know that that is most likely his biggest energy: how he’ll deal with the strain of attempting to show a franchise round.”
That is traditionally a tricky ask, and a few actually good quarterbacks have not gotten it accomplished or did not discover sustained success. However there is a perception Lawrence might turn into the third quarterback drafted first total since Eli Manning in 2004 to succeed in a Tremendous Bowl. “I see no motive why he should not be an excellent quarterback,” Brandt mentioned. “You do not win as many championships in highschool as a real freshman starter within the state of Georgia, the place soccer is excellent, after which win [a championship] at Clemson if you do not have one thing going for you.”