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As always, Apple TV+ will host two baseball games on Friday night. We start off with the Blue Jays hosting the Orioles at 7:07 p.m. ET, followed by another divisional matchup between the Dodgers at Giants at 10:15 p.m. ET. Let’s go over four bets you can make for these games to sweat along with tonight.
These two teams are no strangers to each other and show that offensively. These teams have played each other 13 times and the Blue Jays have gone over 4.5 runs in eight of those games. In fact, the Blue Jays average 8.7 runs per game against this Orioles pitching staff. That’s quite a lot of runs.
Tonight, the O’s will start Jordan Lyles, who will be making his third start against the Blue Jays. In those games, Lyles has allowed six runs on 13 hits through 11 innings. The problem for Lyles is that he struggles much more on the road, which is where he’ll be tonight. He has thrown 82 innings away from Baltimore and has a 5.38 ERA, a .360 wOBA, and 16 of the 21 total home runs he’s given up. Lyles also doesn’t go very deep into games, so that means more innings for the Orioles’ bullpen to fill. While the O’s bullpen has been a strength for them, especially in the second half, it’s not done well against Toronto. Their bullpen has logged 53 2/3 innings and has a 5.53 ERA, with a .336 wOBA against them. The Toronto offense should continue to roll tonight against the Orioles.
Going off the same idea about the Blue Jays’ bats, I think this ends up being a short outing for Lyles. He’s gone over this number in both starts he’s made, but to be fair, it’s been razor thin each time. Lyles went 5 1/3 innings (what he needs to win this bet) and 5 2/3 innings in the two games. However, if you look at some of his recent outings, we have seen Lyles go less than five innings in three of his last five starts. Lyles doesn’t walk many batters, owning a 2.83 BB/9, but he still manages to throw a lot of pitches. In both starts he’s made against the Blue Jays, where he barely crossed over the 15.5 out threshold, Lyles threw 96 and 103 pitches, respectively. Getting at least six innings out of him has been something the Orioles have not been able to get often. Of his 28 starts, 16 of them saw him depart before going a full six. If we see him depart before going 5 1/3, we’ll be cashing this bet.
Taking favorites on the run line can be a tough task. They have to win the game by at least two runs, but you’re usually getting a decent line on it. For example, the Dodgers are +105 to win this game by two. That said, this has been a spot the Dodgers have smashed in. Not only are they the second-best team on the run line with an 88-54 (62%) record, but they’re also 12-4 specifically against the Giants. That’s almost absurd if you think about it. The only games the Giants covered the run line against the Dodgers were when they swept the three-game series in June and one in September. Aside from that, it’s been all Dodgers.
The Dodgers are rolling with Dustin May tonight, who’ll be making his fifth start of the season. He’s only seen two teams thus far, pitching a total of 21 innings against the Padres and Marlins. As you’d expect, it was the Padres who’ve given him the trouble, not the Marlins. Tonight, he’ll face a Giants offense that’s really fallen off lately, slashing just .225/.305/.380 in September. They’re also striking out a ton, with a K% of 28.7%, which is the highest in the league over that span. I think we get more of the same in these games between the Dodgers and Giants, so give me -1.5 on the Doyers.
Turner has been on fire at the plate during the month of September. Through 11 games, he’s slashing .359/.435/.795 with four home runs, 11 runs scored and 12 RBIs. Tonight, we only need him to knock in one run to cash this bet. Of the 11 games, he’s played this month, he’s registered at least one RBI in five of them. Turner has also been so good with runners in scoring position all season long, hitting .351 with a .613 SLG and only a 12.9% K%.
Logan Webb is taking the hill for the Giants and he’s had a stellar season. The problem is those numbers haven’t exactly been good against the Dodgers. In three starts, Webb has a 4.75 ERA with a .362 wOBA and 10 runs on 20 hits allowed through 17 innings. Pitching to contact, Webb has allowed a 30% hard-hit rate to the Dodgers. With the way the Dodgers have hit Webb this season, I think this is a great spot to cash a +155 play on Turner.
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