Widely regarded as one of the best rivalries in sports, we’re treated to another Yankees-Red Sox series this weekend, their third of this MLB season. It’s an even split to this point, with each team grabbing three wins. Friday’s action is set in the Bronx, and the pitchers for tonight are Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi.
Montgomery has started twice against Boston this year, the second of which was just six days ago. The common denominator in Montgomery’s starts against the Sox is the final result: both ending in Yankee losses. Neither L was ultimately credited to Montgomery, but he certainly hasn’t authored a dominant performance in either appearance.
Nathan Eovaldi had a somewhat better statistical showing in his lone start against New York, striking out 7 batters in just five innings back at the beginning of April. He did let up two home runs, to Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, and the Yankees ended up winning in extra innings. This is Eovaldi’s first start since June 8, something worth monitoring. The Sox pitcher has been dealing with a back injury and may be on a short leash tonight.
Betting against the starters
These pitcher matchups tonight like us looking for runs scored. In the past 30 days, Boston owns the best on-base percentage against LHP, suggesting Montgomery may be in for another short stint on the mound. New York feels well equipped to jump on Eovaldi as well, owning the sixth-highest OBP vs. RHP in the past 30 days.
Given our view of these offenses matching up against these starters, our betting attention turns to the first five innings. We can bet over 4.5 runs scored at +100 (DK) in the first five innings. New York ranks second in the MLB in runs per game in the first five, and Boston is 12th. We’re opting for the offenses to jump on these arms early.
Following batter vs. pitcher history
Given how often these teams play, there is some nice batter familiarity with tonight’s starters. Two players in particular have strong history against the opposing starter. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .484 against Montgomery in 33 PA since 2017, knocking 15 hits against the lefty. Bogaerts is also on fire right now, recording two hits in five of his past six games. Aaron Judge has a .391 average in 24 PA vs. Eovaldi and averages 1.2 hits per game against Boston this season. We’re parlaying each to get a hit at +117 on FD.
Recap of action we like:
- Over 4.5 runs in first five innings (+100 DK)
- Bogaerts/Judge to each record a hit (+117 FD)
In other news …
Suns match Pacers’ offer sheet on Deandre Ayton, Ayton staying in Phoenix — The NBA world didn’t need to wait long to find out the fate of former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. After the Indiana Pacers signed the center to the highest offer sheet in NBA history, the Suns quickly matched the contract, retaining their RFA in Ayton. The terms of the deal make it so Ayton cannot be moved until January and can’t be traded for a year without his consent. After Ayton found himself riding the bench in Phoenix’s postseason exit, a separation felt imminent. Instead, he’s back with the Suns. Phoenix owns the second-best odds to win next year’s NBA Finals at +600.
Low-scoring Round 2s headline the morning action at The Open — We do our best to apprise you of how things are going at The Open, but given the early starts in Scotland, plenty can change from time of writing to publication. What won’t change is the second-round scores for a handful of golfers who have wrapped up. Dustin Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton and Adam Scott are just a few who posted -5 or better on their scorecards this morning, flying up the leaderboard in the process. Johnson, who when we last checked in was at the top of the board, currently owns the third-best odds to win the major at +750. Hatton offers the best odds we see from this trio, at +1600.
Ambetter 301 hits the track Sunday in NASCAR — There are just seven races left in the NASCAR Cup Series before the playoffs begin, and Sunday’s race in New Hampshire is the latest action on the track. Ryan Blaney is the favorite at +600 despite no wins yet this year. Blaney is second in the Cup Series standings given his seven top-5 finishes. He’s had solid success at this New Hampshire race but has never won. We like Kevin Harvick at +1400. Harvick has four top-10 finishes in his past six starts and won on this track in both 2018 and 2019.
Today’s Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll