Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs take the floor in a Sweet 16 matchup on Sunday afternoon. The undefeated No. 1 seed will face the No. 5 seed Creighton Bluejays in the first 2021 NCAA Tournament game of the day. Creighton advanced to this point without beating a single-digit seed, knocking off No. 12 UC Santa Barbara and No. 13 Ohio during the first weekend. Gonzaga cruised past No. 16 seed Norfolk State and No. 8 seed Oklahoma to reach the Sweet 16.

Tip-off is at 2:10 p.m. ET on CBS from Hinkle Fieldhouse. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs 13.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 158.5 in the latest Gonzaga vs. Creighton odds. Before making any Creighton vs. Gonzaga picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. Creighton in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Creighton vs. Gonzaga:

  • Gonzaga vs. Creighton spread: Gonzaga -13.5
  • Gonzaga vs. Creighton over-under: 158.5 points
  • Gonzaga vs. Creighton money line: Gonzaga -1100, Creighton +700
  • ZAG: The Bulldogs are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • CRE: The Bluejays are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why Gonzaga can cover 

Gonzaga is the best offensive team in the country, and the Bulldogs have three legitimate stars to lead the charge. Corey Kispert is the WCC Player of the Year and a first team All-American, averaging 19.2 points per game with blistering shooting numbers. Kispert converts 54.5 percent of his shots, including 45.8 percent from 3-point range, and he is also a 90 percent free throw shooter. Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs were both first team All-WCC selections, with Timme averaging 18.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game and Suggs adding 14.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.0 steals per contest. 

As a team, Gonzaga leads the country in scoring, both on a per-game and per-possession basis, and the Zags are difficult to defend. In this matchup, they can also take solace in some weaknesses from Creighton. The Bluejays struggle to create turnovers defensively, and they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, ranking outside the top 300 at 64.3 percent. Creighton is also well below-average in both offensive rebounding and free throw creation, giving Gonzaga the edge in the possession battle.

Why Creighton can cover

Creighton is one of the best offensive teams in the nation, including the No. 2 mark in offensive efficiency during Big East play. The Bluejays led their conference in both 2-point shooting (55.8 percent) and overall shooting efficiency, and Creighton is a top-10 team in the country inside the arc. The Bluejays are also well above-average in 3-point shooting at 36.5 percent, including a 42.1 percent clip for All-Big East guard Marcus Zegarowski. Creighton takes care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 15.8 percent of possessions, and generating quality shots will be key against Gonzaga. 

On the other end, the Bulldogs are tremendous offensively, but Creighton has solidly above-average metrics in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed (46.4 percent), block rate (9.2 percent), steal rate (9.9 percent) and free throw prevention. The Bluejays also played a tougher strength of schedule this season, and they are battle tested in a tournament setting after two competitive games.

How to make Creighton vs. Gonzaga picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 162 points. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Creighton vs. Gonzaga? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.

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