After NASCAR’s first race this season on a non-drafting track Sunday, we have a clearer idea how the 2023 season might shake out.
Some trends from the first two races obviously won’t continue all season. Kyle Larson (24th), William Byron (29th), Chase Briscoe (33rd) and Tyler Reddick (38th) are outside the top 20 in points. That will change.
But there are other takeaways from February that could be indicative of greater trends. Here are four of them.
Kyle Busch will compete for the title
After winning only four Cup races over the course of the past three seasons, not much was expected of the once-dominant driver, but he seems to have found new life.
Busch came close to winning the season-opening Daytona 500, leading with a few laps to go before he was taken out in a late crash. Then, on Sunday, he came back from an early speeding penalty on pit road to win at Fontana.
Rather than a permanent decline into irrelevancy, Busch appears to have returned to form with his change of scenery.
Trackhouse Racing isn’t going anywhere
One of the biggest surprises of last season was the sudden breakout of Trackhouse Racing in the team’s second season in NASCAR. Drivers Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez — neither of whom had ever won a Cup race before 2022 — combined for three victories while Chastain finished second in the championship.
Was Trackhouse’s meteoric rise sustainable? Early indications are that, if anything, the future may be even brighter. Chastain led the most laps in Fontana (91), and both drivers finished inside the top five. Both are in the top five in points after two races. They are here to stay.
Corey LaJoie, playoff contender?
This one is bold and still probably unlikely. It’s hard to imagine underdog Spire Motorsports and LaJoie, who has never finished higher than 29th in Cup Series points, taking this big a leap. But two races in, LaJoie is 13th.
His results (16th at Daytona, 14th at Fontana) haven’t just been luck, either. LaJoie’s average running position is 17th, so he is legitimately running inside the top 20. It’s possible that Spire has improved significantly this season, too.
The Xfinity Series will be a two-man race
In NASCAR’s secondary series, early indications are that two drivers will dominate: John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer, both former Cup drivers. They combined to lead 95 of 150 laps during Sunday’s event in Fontana.
Nemechek won the race and Custer was knocked out of contention by a blown tire after winning the first two stages. Both drivers are overqualified for the series and should return to the Cup Series in 2024.