Only three games remain in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, and two of them will take place on Saturday evening. The Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on the UCLA Bruins in the nightcap, with a berth in the national title game on the line. Top-seeded Gonzaga sits at 30-0 this season, including 27 straight wins by double figures. The Bulldogs advanced with a dominant victory over USC in the Elite Eight. UCLA (22-9) is a No. 11 seed, emerging with four upset victories on the way to the 2021 Final Four. That includes a narrowly-contested win over No. 1 seed Michigan on Tuesday night.
Tip-off at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is scheduled for 8:34 p.m. ET on CBS. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as 14-point favorites in the latest Gonzaga vs. UCLA odds. The over-under for total points expected is listed at 145.5, down half a point from the opening line. Before locking in any UCLA vs. Gonzaga picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. UCLA in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UCLA vs. Gonzaga:
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA spread: Gonzaga -14
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA over-under: 145.5 points
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA money line: Gonzaga -1200, UCLA +750
- ZAGS: The Bulldogs are 9-4 against the spread in non-conference games
- UCLA: The Bruins are 5-0 against the spread in the 2021 NCAA Tournament
Why Gonzaga can cover
The Bulldogs deploy one of the best offenses in the history of college basketball, setting them up for sustained success. Drew Timme, Corey Kispert and Jalen Suggs each average more than 14 points per game on high-end efficiency, and Gonzaga overwhelms opponents with both talent and efficiency. Mark Few’s team comfortably leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (126.8) and also sets the pace in scoring, averaging 91.6 points per game.
Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in effective field goal percentage (61.0 percent), field goal percentage (54.9 percent), and 2-point shooting (63.7 percent), with the No. 2 mark in the country in assists (18.6 per game). The Bulldogs are essentially without weakness on the offensive end and, combined with a top-five defense in the country, Gonzaga’s overall profile is difficult to pick apart.
Why UCLA can cover
UCLA is a balanced team that saved its best basketball for the NCAA Tournament 2021. Cronin’s team battled injury issues, including the loss of Chris Smith (ACL) during the season, but the Bruins are very good on both ends of the floor. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. key the offense, with Juzang averaging 21.6 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are a top-15 offense in the country on a per-possession basis, and they are strongly above-average in turnover rate (15.8 percent), steal rate allowed (7.2 percent), offensive rebound rate (30.6 percent) and 3-point shooting (36.9 percent).
Gonzaga has few weaknesses, but one potential area to exploit is rim protection, where the Bulldogs block just 6.9 percent of attempts this season, ranking 262nd in the country. On the other side, UCLA is a strong defensive rebounding team, leading the Pac-12 by grabbing 74.8 percent of available rebounds during conference play. The Bruins are also very good in preventing free throw attempts, and 2-point defense is a strength, with opponents shooting only 49.5 percent for the season.
How to make UCLA vs. Gonzaga picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 157 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins UCLA vs. Gonzaga? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
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