Remaining on the ballot before eventually gaining election is, statistically, more common. But even within that group, there is plenty of variation. Some players debut at a voting percentage close to the 75% needed for election. For others, the path is longer – like the 341st Hall of Famer, Scott Rolen, whose 10.2% on his first ballot is the lowest for any player to eventually be elected on the BBWAA ballot.
With Billy Wagner (10.5% in 2016 ballot debut), Andruw Jones (7.3%, ‘18) and Todd Helton (16.5%, ‘19) all still on the ballot and continuing to gain in voting, year-by-year, this may be relevant again soon.
Here’s a look at the lowest debut percentages on the Hall of Fame ballot for players eventually elected by the writers, since voting returned to being yearly in 1966.
2018 Scott Rolen: 10.2%
Elected: 2023, sixth year on ballot
When Rolen debuted on the ballot in ‘18, he got the 17th-highest share of the vote at 10.2%. Four players were elected that year: Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome and Trevor Hoffman. And the 16 ahead of Rolen also included three others who would go on to be elected on the BBWAA ballot – Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina and Larry Walker – plus Fred McGriff, who was elected by the Contemporary Era committee. Rolen received 17.2% in ‘19, 35.3% in ‘20, 52.9% in ‘21, 63.2% in ‘22 and finally, 76.3% in 2023.
1970 Duke Snider: 17.0%
Elected: 1980, 11th year on ballot
To say Snider debuted on a crowded ballot would be an understatement. His 17% was tied for 20th that year. The lone electee was Lou Boudreau, but the 1970 ballot also featured 14 others – aside from Boudreau and Snider – who would end up being enshrined in Cooperstown eventually, either by the BBWAA ballot or a committee. They were: Richie Ashburn, Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon, Gil Hodges, George Kell, Ralph Kiner, Bob Lemon, Johnny Mize, Hal Newhouser, Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Red Schoendienst, Enos Slaughter and Early Wynn. Snider received 24.7% in 1971, 21.2% in ‘72, 26.6% in ‘73, 30.4% in ‘74, 35.6% in ‘75, 41.0% in ‘76, 55.4% in ‘77, 67.0% in ‘78, 71.3% in ‘79 and 86.5% in ‘80.
1998 Bert Blyleven: 17.5%
Elected: 2011, 14th year on ballot
Blyleven’s 17.5% in his 1998 debut on the ballot was 11th that year. Don Sutton was elected, and Tony Peréz, Jim Rice, Gary Carter and Bruce Sutter would all end up elected by the BBWAA at some point in addition to Blyleven. Plus Ron Santo, Jim Kaat and Minnie MIñoso would be elected by Era committees. Blyleven received 14.1% in 1999, 17.4% in ‘00, 23.5% in ‘01, 26.3% in ‘02, 29.2% in ‘03, 35.4% in ‘04, 40.9% in ‘05, 53.3% in ‘06, 47.7% in ‘07, 61.9% in ‘08, 62.7% in ‘09, 74.2% in ‘10 and 79.7% in ‘11.
2014 Mike Mussina: 20.3%
Elected: 2019, sixth year on ballot
Mussina’s 20.3% of the vote in 2014 ranked 15th. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas were all elected that year. Eventual BBWAA electees in addition to Mussina included Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Martinez and Walker. There were also four players who went on to be elected by Era committees: Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell and McGriff. Mussina received 24.6% of the vote in ‘15, 43.0% in ‘16, 51.8% in ‘17, 63.5% in ‘18 and 76.7% in ‘19.
2011 Larry Walker: 20.3%
Elected: 2020, 10th year on ballot
Walker debuted with 20.3% of the vote in 2011, ranking 10th on the ballot. This was the aforementioned year that Blyleven was elected, as well as Roberto Alomar. Others on the ‘11 ballot to be eventually elected by the BBWAA, in addition to Walker, were Barry Larkin, Bagwell, Raines and Martinez. Era committee electees Morris, Smith, Trammell, McGriff and Harold Baines were on this year’s ballot as well. Walker received 22.9% of the vote in ‘12, 21.6% in ‘13, 10.2% in ‘14, 11.8% in ‘15, 15.5% in ‘16, 21.9% in ‘17, 34.1% in ‘18, 54.6% in ‘19 and 76.6% in ‘20.
1975 Don Drysdale: 21.0%
Elected: 1984, 10th year on ballot
The ballot Drysdale debuted on was almost as crowded as Snider’s. Drysdale’s 21.0% of the vote was tied for 15th. Kiner was elected in ‘75, and 13 others were eventually elected by the BBWAA or committees, in addition to Drysdale. They were: Ashburn, Nellie Fox, Hodges, Kell, Lemon, Eddie Mathews, Newhouser, Reese, Rizzuto, Robin Roberts, Schoendienst, Slaughter and Snider. Drysdale received 29.4% of the vote in 1976, 51.4% in ‘77, 57.8% in ‘78, 53.9% in ‘79, 61.8% in ‘80, 60.6% in ‘81, 56.1% in ‘82, 64.7% in ‘83 and 78.4% in ‘84.