PHILADELPHIA — The Phillies hadn’t hosted a National League Championship Series game since 2010, and they made sure to take full advantage with a 4-2 win in a pivotal Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park on Friday.
In all best-of-seven postseason series tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner has captured the series 67 of 97 times (69%). In series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams breaking a 1-1 tie by winning Game 3 in their home ballpark have gone on to win the series 28 of 46 times (61%).
Through three games, the NLCS has come down to which team has the better starting pitching and who delivers the timely hits. But in Game 4 on Saturday, with both teams expected to deploy their versions of a bullpen game, it’ll be a battle of which pitching staff performs best.
“We’ve got a big one tomorrow,” said Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins. “It’s obviously great to take the series lead, even better to do it at home in front of this crowd. But we’ve got a big one tomorrow, see if we can put ourselves in a better position.”
When is the game and how can I watch it?
Game 4, which will air on FOX, is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Who are the starting pitchers?
Padres: Right-hander Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA) will make his second start this postseason. He allowed five runs (four earned) over just 2 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the NL Division Series against the Dodgers on Oct. 11. Though Clevinger has pitched well in stints this season, he put up a 6.52 ERA in his final six regular-season starts before his NLDS struggles.
Phillies: Left-hander Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.86 ERA) will make his postseason debut in what will essentially become a bullpen game for the Phils. Falter hasn’t pitched since the regular-season finale in Houston on Oct. 5, when he threw just 11 pitches in one inning. Manager Rob Thomson said he’s hoping Falter can get through three innings, though veteran right-hander Noah Syndergaard could also be called upon to help bridge the gap to the regular relievers.
What might the starting lineups look like?
Padres: Perhaps the most fascinating Padres lineup decision of the postseason. If the Phillies are trying to sneak a trip or two through the order for Falter, San Diego will undoubtedly try to get some right-handed bats toward the top of the order. That includes the switch-hitting Bell, who is 4-for-5 with two homers and a double against Falter. The Padres must also decide whether they want to start Nola potentially five times in five days — with Game 4 being the only realistic option to start backup Jorge Alfaro, according to manager Bob Melvin.
Phillies: With the Padres starting another righty in Clevinger, Thomson will likely stick with the same lineup he used in Game 3 against Joe Musgrove.
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Padres: Josh Hader will get the ball in save situations — sometimes for more than one inning. Robert Suarez is the team’s primary setup weapon, and he’s been dominant this postseason. From there, the Padres have righties Nick Martínez and former Philly reliever Luis García to cover high-leverage spots, with Tim Hill as the primary lefty setup man.
Phillies: Thomson said at the beginning of a stretch in which the Phillies and Padres potentially play five games in five days that he expects to deploy his bullpen as needed. But it will be interesting to see how he handles Game 4 after Seranthony Domínguez threw 34 pitches to record a six-out save in Game 3. Thomson said he plans to see how Domínguez feels when he arrives at the ballpark on Saturday before making a decision about his availability. Everyone else should be available for Philadelphia, including José Alvarado (27 pitches in one-plus inning in Game 3) and Zach Eflin (17 pitches in one inning). David Robertson and Andrew Bellatti are potential high-leverage options if Thomson opts to stay away from Domínguez, while left-hander Brad Hand could be called upon against a left-handed part of the lineup.
Padres: Profar is battling a nagging toe injury, but he has played through it all postseason. Still, Melvin has at times opted to use José Azocar as a late-game replacement for Profar during the playoffs.
Phillies: The Phillies are healthy.
Who is hot and who is not?
Padres: Drury has turned in back-to-back two-hit games and he now gets to face a left-hander in Falter. Drury hit .299 with a .955 OPS against southpaws during the regular season (compared to .248 with a .757 OPS vs. righties). … Meanwhile, Soto is just 2-for-11 (.182) through three games against the Phillies and he’s hitting .185 (5-for-27) since the start of the NLDS.
Phillies: Schwarber is heating up. He hit a record-breaking 488-foot home run in Game 1. He also hit a 405-foot leadoff home run in Game 3, just the fourth leadoff homer in Phillies postseason history. … Harper has an eight-game hitting streak, during which he’s hitting .438 (14-for-32) with four homers, four doubles and seven RBIs.
Anything else fans might want to know?
Ryan Howard will throw out the first pitch before Game 4. He was the 2009 NLCS MVP, sending the Phillies to their second consecutive World Series.